In one of the most anticipated games of the college football season, Lane Kiffin returns to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Miss., as his LSU program takes on his former team, Ole Miss, on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC).
The Tigers are a 2.5-point favorite, and while Kiffin and Trinidad Chambliss are the biggest names in the Magnolia Bowl, my LSU vs. Ole Miss predictions and college football picks are backing the road team because of Blake Baker's defense.
LSU vs Ole Miss predictions
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Early LSU vs Ole Miss spread pick: LSU -2.5
Given the LSU vs. Ole Miss rivalry history, the Magnolia Bowl didn't need any extra hate injected into it, but Lane Kiffin's move from The Velvet Ditch down to the Bayou was like pouring gasoline on the fire.
And while Kiffin is known for prolific offense, his defense is the reason LSU is poised to cover on the road against Ole Miss. The Tigers are third nationally in havoc rate (30.2%), and both their star pass rushers - Princewill Umanmielen (10) and Jordan Ross (8) - are Top 25 in the country in pressures.
With those two on the edge and one of the most talented back sevens in the country, the Tigers' defense is ranked No. 2 by SP+ and Top 10 in EPA per pass and rush. For Ole Miss to win, Trinidad Chambliss will need to be at his best, and even then, his defense could let him down.
Despite Pete Golding being Kiffin's defensive coordinator at Ole Miss before being promoted to head coach, the Rebels' defense has struggled this season. That's why I like LSU to cover -3.5 or better.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS35' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $35 — including college football!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Early LSU vs Ole Miss total pick: Over 58.5
Although LSU's defense has the pieces to be one of the best in the country, I'm still expecting a high-scoring game. Both offenses are up-tempo, ranking Top 5 in plays per minute, per Brad Powers, and Ole Miss' defense has been disappointing.
The Rebels ranked third-to-last in the SEC in havoc rate (15.5%) and have 21 pressures through two games (LSU has 48). They're also ranked outside the Top 60 in EPA per pass and rush on defense, and allowed 469 yards to Louisville in Lincoln Kienholz's first career start.
As long as Sam Leavitt plays within himself, LSU's offense should take advantage. But Chambliss is so talented that Ole Miss will do its part for the Over. The Rebels rank 15th in offensive success rate (54.3%) and 12th in early-down EPA per play, thanks in part to having one of the country's best running backs, Kewan Lacy.
I'm expecting a high-scoring game, somewhere in the ballpark of 33-29, that comes down to LSU's defense making key stops late.
LSU vs Ole Miss odds
- LSU vs Ole Miss spread: Ole Miss -2.5
- LSU vs Ole Miss moneyline: LSU 59%, Ole Miss 41%
- LSU vs Ole Miss Over/Under: 58.5
How to watch LSU vs Ole Miss
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: Oxford, Miss.
- Venue: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
