The Los Angeles Dodgers (66%) own a remarkable 60-25 record against sub- .500 teams and now face the Cincinnati Reds.
They have feasted on subpar opponents, and my Dodgers vs. Reds prediction sees that continuing, with Blake Snell giving them a massive pitching advantage over Andrew Abbott.
Let's break down my MLB picks for tonight's game from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Who will win Dodgers vs Reds today: Dodgers -1.5
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are a good run line play up to 58%.
Their offense is in really strong form against southpaws, ranking fourth in xwOBA over the last month.
Cincinnati Reds starter Andrew Abbott is likely to fuel that fire. He sits in the 14th percentile with a 5.00 xERA, and that number has soared to 6.21 over eight starts against teams ranking Top 10 in xwOBA and OPS vs. lefties.
Blake Snell has allowed four runs over his last 34 2/3 innings and can expect much more support than he needs.
COVERS INTEL: Abbott has allowed a 13% barrel rate over the last month. His inability to limit elite contact will get him into trouble in favorable hitting conditions against a powerful Dodgers offense.
Dodgers vs Reds Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (49%)
I’m on the Over to 52%.
The Dodgers will need to do the heavy lifting, which should not be a problem against Abbott.
Abbott’s season has gone completely in the tank over the last couple of months. He is sporting a 6.39 xERA and 7.71 ERA spanning eight starts since Aug. 1.
Five of those games came against non-playoff teams, and he allowed seven runs in two of his three starts against teams currently in playoff position.
Snell has been exceptional, but he’s likely to pitch six innings, leaving a third of the game for the Reds to chip in against relievers.
Dodgers vs Reds home run prediction: Kyle Tucker (16%)
Kyle Tucker has quietly crushed the fastball-sweeper combination from lefties.
He’s hitting .381 with a .317 ISO and 16.3% barrel rate — elite numbers. When Abbott departs, Tucker will face a bullpen that has allowed home runs at the fifth-highest rate this season.
Playing in Great American Ballpark will help his cause of hitting for power. Hot temperatures and slight winds blowing out are projected to boost home runs by 15%.
- ML/RL bets: 114-96, -4.85 units
- Over/Under bets: 108-96-4, -1.40 units
Dodgers vs Reds weather
Temperatures are expected to approach 90 with light winds blowing out. Clear boost to the bats.
Dodgers vs Reds odds
- Moneyline: Dodgers 66% | Reds 35%
- Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (54%) | Reds +1.5 (47%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (49%) | Under 8.5 (52%)
Dodgers vs Reds trend
Cincinnati is 28-42 against teams over .500 this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Reds.
How to watch Dodgers vs Reds and game info
| Location | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio |
| Date | Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet LA, Reds.TV |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Blake Snell (4-1, 1.91 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher | Andrew Abbott (6-11, 4.78 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Reds latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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