A pivotal AL Wild Card battle pits the Texas Rangers as short home favorites against the Boston Red Sox ahead of their 8:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Globe Life Field on Wednesday, Sept. 16.
My Red Sox vs. Rangers predictions and MLB picks call for Texas to win a second straight over Boston, with the total going Over the number tonight.
Who will win Red Sox vs Rangers today: Rangers moneyline
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I handicap this game as a near toss-up, so I’ll back the Texas Rangers moneyline to 54% because they are in superior offensive form.
Not only does Texas rank fourth in wOBA against lefties for the season, the Rangers are seventh in overall wOBA, second in ISO and 12th in xwOBA over the past 30 days.
The Boston Red Sox, meanwhile, has seen their numbers drop to a 20th-ranked wOBA, 18th-ranked ISO, and 18th-ranked xwOBA in September.
Plus, Texas starter MacKenzie Gore probably has a splash of statistical correction coming. His 4.61 ERA over his past 11 starts is well above his 4.12 xERA and 4.33 xFIP.
COVERS INTEL: The Red Sox rank 25th in squared-up contact rate and 21st in hard-hit rate in September.
Red Sox vs Rangers Over/Under pick: Over 7.5
This total is too low, and I’d recommend the Over 7.5 to 57%.
Even with the highlighted case for Gore, Boston does rank fifth in the majors in wOBA against lefties this season, so the Red Sox are also set to put runs on the board tonight.
Additionally, Boston southpaw Jake Bennett hasn’t exactly been dealing down the stretch with a 4.55 ERA (4.00 xERA and 3.95 xFIP) across his past 10 outings, and Texas has played to the Over in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+10.20 Units / 18% ROI).
Red Sox vs Rangers home run prediction: Pick
Rangers first baseman Jake Burger has hit 12 of his 26 homers against lefties with a monster .304 ISO, and Bennett has served up a healthy .222 ISO and 17.7% blast-contact rate to right-handed batters across his past 10 starts.
- ML/RL bets: 59-33, +28.53 units
- Over/Under bets: 33-30, +0.88 units
Red Sox vs Rangers weather
The retractable roof will be closed at Globe Life Field.
Red Sox vs Rangers odds
- Moneyline: Red Sox 50% | Rangers 51%
- Run line: Red Sox -1.5 (37%) | Rangers +1.5 (64%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (46%) | Under 8.5 (55%)
Red Sox vs Rangers trend
The Rangers have won 16 of their last 24 games at home (+5.50 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Rangers.
How to watch Red Sox vs Rangers and game info
| Location | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | NESN, RSN |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Jake Bennett (9-7, 3.69 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher | MacKenzie Gore (8-11, 4.62 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Rangers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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