There are several heavy favorites on the Week 2 board, but that doesn't mean every one deserves your trust. My NFL Survivor picks start with the San Francisco 49ers, who draw one of the league's weakest teams and offer exactly what I'm looking for this early in the season: a massive win probability without overthinking it.
I'm also considering a riskier road favorite, while fading two popular options that have enough red flags to send me elsewhere.
Check out our NFL picks for more betting analysis across the Week 2 slate.
49ers
Eagles
Patriots
BearsPercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Week 2 Survivor Pool first look
There are several big favorites worth considering for survivor this week. And while I like to go contrarian by staying away from the most popular team, I'm not going to force it early in the season. That said, the San Francisco 49ers to beat the Miami Dolphins is my favorite early look for Week 2.
If I don't take the Niners, I'll most likely end up on the Los Angeles Chargers over the Las Vegas Raiders. This is the first- or second-easiest game on LAC's schedule, and they've beaten and covered in all four games vs. the Raiders since hiring Jim Harbaugh two years ago.
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Teams to target in Week 2
Safe pick: 49ers (vs Dolphins)
After losing to the lowly Las Vegas Raiders last week, Miami will be in the mix for having the worst record in the NFL this season. The Niners are legitimate Super Bowl contenders, and this is the easiest game on their schedule.
Risky pick: Eagles (@ Titans)
This is the easiest game on the Philadelphia Eagles' schedule, and Tennessee no-showed in a 23-10 loss at home to the cursed New York Jets in Week 1.
However, this is a "risky" pick because I'm a believer in the core of Titans head coach Robert Salah, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and QB Cam Ward, and they are home for this game.
Teams to avoid in Week 2
Patriots (vs Steelers)
New England Patriots QB Drake Maye played as poorly in Week 1 as he did in the playoffs last season, and he will be without No. 1 WR A.J. Brown for the next few weeks.
The Steelers upset the Patriots on the road last year, and Pittsburgh's defense was ferocious in a 20-13 win over the Atlanta Falcons last week.
Bears (vs Vikings)
I know Chicago erupted for an NFL-high 59 points vs. the Carolina Panthers in Week 1, and Minnesota will be starting backup QB Carson Wentz, but Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is one of the few guys who could give Bears head coach Ben Johnson headaches. Minnesota's defense was tied for second in yards per play allowed last season.
Week 2 Survivor Pool strategy
You can't just look at the odds before making your survivor pool pick; a team's future value is another component to consider. Meaning, does the team you're thinking about selecting have an easier game later in the season? Or is the team good enough to save for a tough week?
Also, even though the Eagles are my "risky" pick, I generally avoid picking road teams in survivor. Regardless of how much they are favored. Teams know when they are a big underdog vs. a good team, and they'll get up for those games, especially in front of their home crowds.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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