The Chicago Cubs are home favorites to win their rubber match against the Atlanta Braves ahead of the 7:40 p.m. ET first pitch at Wrigley Field on Wednesday, Sept. 16.
My Braves vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks call for the Chicago lineup to put too many runs on the board for Atlanta to keep pace in the series finale tonight.
Who will win Braves vs Cubs today: Cubs -1.5
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
With the Atlanta Braves sending rookie JR Ritchie to the bump, I’m confident in the Chicago Cubs' run line to 41%.
Ritchie sports a 5.33 xERA and 5.12 xFIP across his eight starts. Additionally, his abysmal 14.4% walk rate goes alongside a 40.4% hard-hit rate, so the Cubs are set up for success tonight.
Chicago paces the majors in wOBA while ranking second in walk rate against righties during the second half, after all.
Finally, Cubbies lefty Shota Imanaga has allowed two runs or fewer in 12 of his past 16 starts, and his season-long 3.88 ERA is right in line with his underlying 3.87 xERA and 3.91 xFIP.
COVERS INTEL: The Braves rank 18th in both wOBA and hard-hit rate against lefties since the All-Star break.
Braves vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Over 7.5
The Cubs have scored the most runs per game and hit the Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+11.20 Units / 29% ROI), so with the noted favorable pitching matchup, this total is in play to 52%.
Plus, Atlanta and Chicago have combined for 19 runs through the first two games of the series, and I expect the Braves to chip in enough offensively to send this total Over the number.
Braves vs Cubs home run prediction: Ian Happ
With Ritchie allowing a monster 47.2% hard-hit rate and .234 ISO to left-handed hitters across his eight starts, I’m eyeing Cubbies veteran Ian Happ to cash in on statistical correction.
Happ has gone 18 games without a homer despite a respectable 33.3% squared-up contact rate and 41.9% hard-hit rate, so with a high-end .213 ISO against righties for the year, the matchup checks out.
- ML/RL picks: 59-33, +28.53 units
- Over/Under picks: 33-30, +0.88 units
Braves vs Cubs weather
Comfortable conditions are in the forecast, with temperatures around 68°F under partly cloudy skies and a gentle 8 mph breeze blowing in from right field.
Braves vs Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Braves 44% | Cubs 57%
- Run line: Braves +1.5 (63%) | Cubs -1.5 (38%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (50%) | Under 7.5 (52%)
Braves vs Cubs trend
The Cubs have covered the run line in 27 of their last 50 games (+6.35 Units / 11% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Cubs.
How to watch Braves vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, Ill. |
| Date | Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | BravesVsn, Marquee |
| Braves starting pitcher | JR Ritchie (1-2, 4.50 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Shota Imanaga (10-10, 3.88 ERA) |
Braves vs Cubs latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
