The New York Mets are priced as heavy 57% moneyline favorites tonight at home against the Baltimore Orioles, with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field.
With New York expected to go with an opener amid their bullpen struggles, my Orioles vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks see immense value in the underdogs.
Who will win Orioles vs Mets today: Orioles moneyline
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Play up to 50%.
The New York Mets send reliever Robert Stock to the hill, and he hasn't exactly been elite. The right-hander owns a 4.92 xERA over his last four appearances, and Stock rarely lasts longer than four innings.
That means the Mets' bullpen should be involved early, and they've struggled. The relief corps has posted a 4.70 FIP while allowing 1.80 HR/9 over the last week. The Baltimore Orioles have also produced at a respectable level lately, compiling a 101 wRC+ over their previous five contests.
As for Chris Bassitt, he owns a 4.22 FIP over his last two starts while barely allowing any home runs.
Bassitt gives Baltimore the more stable pitching profile tonight.
COVERS INTEL: Robert Stock has struggled at home this season, posting a 4.33 FIP. He's been a lot better on the road with a 3.35 FIP. The O's will capitalize. 
Orioles vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 8.5
Play up to 57%.
We're looking at two starters who are rarely lights-out, with both carrying ERAs well above four this season. Baltimore has been producing enough offensively lately, while the Mets have been even better, posting a 120 wRC+ over the last week.
I also like the Over because of New York's bullpen, which continues to give up runs late in games. Baltimore's relief corps has been far more reliable lately, but Bassitt could allow enough early damage for the Mets to do their part.
With multiple paths to runs on both sides, I like this matchup to reach nine or more.
Orioles vs Mets home run prediction: Francisco Lindor
Francisco Lindor has found his power stroke lately, slugging three homers in his last six games. The shortstop owns a .409 ISO and .636 SLG during that span, highlighting his recent power surge.
Lindor also has a 66.7% fly-ball rate over the last week, while Bassitt is allowing 38% of his contact in the air on the road along with 1.53 HR/9. Baltimore's bullpen has limited the long ball well, but it's still allowing plenty of fly balls lately.
With Lindor also posting a 71.4% hard-hit rate recently, this price is worth a serious look.
- ML/RL bets: 71-80, -18.73 units
- Over/Under bets: 81-66, +3.38 units
Orioles vs Mets weather
Weather conditions should be comfortable at Citi Field tonight. Temperatures will sit in the low-to-mid 70s throughout the game with partly cloudy skies and very little rain risk. Winds should be relatively light, so they’re unlikely to have a major impact on the ball. Overall, weather shouldn’t be much of a factor.
Orioles vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Orioles 44% | Mets 57%
- Run line: Orioles +1.5 (62%) | Mets -1.5 (39%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (54%) | Under 8.5 (47%)
Orioles vs Mets trend
The Orioles have cashed the moneyline in 26 of their last 45 road games for +9.50 units and a 19% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Mets.
How to watch Orioles vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, N.Y. |
| Date | Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Chris Bassitt (7-5, 4.88 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Robert Stock (1-3, 5.93 ERA) |
Orioles vs Mets latest injuries
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