Louisville gets a shot at revenge when it hosts SMU on Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.
Our SMU vs. Louisville predictions focus on whether the Cardinals can flip last season’s lopsided result and whether two dangerous quarterbacks can push this matchup beyond its 59.5-point total.
I break down my early college football picks ahead of this showdown on September 19.
SMU vs Louisville predictions
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Early SMU vs Louisville spread pick: Louisville -1.5
I'd trade the Louisville Cardinals up to -2.5.
This is a Revenge Game for the Cardinals, who got destroyed by the SMU Mustangs 38-6 on the road last year. It was Louisville's only loss by more than three points. When I look at their season openers, I was more impressed by the Cardinals losing a 41-38 nail-biter to No. 8 Ole Miss than the Mustangs eking past Florida State 27-24.
Mississippi has legitimate College Football Playoff (CFP) hopes and lost to Miami in a thriller in the Fiesta Bowl last season (CFP semifinals). Meanwhile, FSU is 44th in ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly's SP+ Ratings, and head coach Mike Norvell's seat is red-hot.
After struggling in the first half vs. Ole Miss, Louisville QB Lincoln Kienholz rallied. He completed 11-of-15 passes for 261 yards, three total touchdowns (two passing and one rushing) and no interceptions, and added 52 rushing yards. Kienholz engineered a 14-point comeback with 6:43 remaining to tie that game as well.
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Early SMU vs Louisville total pick: Over 59.5
I'd take the Over up to 61.5 because both head coaches are former college quarterbacks who have more experience on offense and sick quarterbacks.
I've already discussed Kienholz, but SMU senior QB Kevin Jennings leads the ACC in passing yards, and he's tied with Miami QB Darian Mensah for a conference-high eight touchdown passes.
According to GameOnPaper.com, the Cardinals rank in the 43rd percentile in defensive havoc rate, so Jennings and Co. will have plenty of time to run SMU's offense with little pressure. Nevertheless, I think this is a fun game that Louisville ultimately finds a way to win, roughly 35-31.
SMU vs Louisville odds
- SMU vs Louisville spread: SMU +1.5 (53%), Louisville -1.5 (53%)
- SMU vs Louisville moneyline: SMU 50%, Louisville 54%
- SMU vs Louisville Over/Under: 59.5
How to watch SMU vs Louisville
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026, 3:30 p.m. ET
- City: Louisville, Ky.
- Venue: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
- TV: ESPN2
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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