The Arizona Diamondbacks are home favorites over the Miami Marlins ahead of their 9:40 p.m. ET first pitch at Chase Field on Wednesday, Sept. 16.
My top Marlins vs. Diamondbacks prediction and MLB picks call for Arizona to even the series with a convincing win tonight.
Who will win Marlins vs Diamondbacks today: Diamondbacks -1.5
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
I’m bullish on the Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 run line to 42% because Miami Marlins righty Ryan Gusto has serious statistical correction ahead.
His 3.86 ERA through his past nine starts is miles below his 5.25 xERA and 4.56 xFIP, and Arizona ranks sixth in squared-up contact rate against righties in the second half.
Additionally, a deeper dive into Diamondback righty Merrill Kelly highlights that the veteran has stabilized down the stretch following a tough start to the year.
Kelly sports a 3.64 xERA while holding opponents to an 8.7% blast-contact rate across his past four starts.
COVERS INTEL: The Miami Marlins rank 26th in xwOBA and expected slugging percentage.
Marlins vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Over 8.5
While Kelly has recently turned things around, he’s still allowed the third-highest xwOBA in baseball, so Miami is also set to have success at the dish, considering the Marlins rank seventh in wOBA and 12th in xwOBA in September.
Additionally, Miami has played to the Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 38% ROI).
As a result, I’m anticipating both teams chipping in offensively to send this total Over the number tonight.
Marlins vs Diamondbacks home run prediction: Corbin Carroll
Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll has hit 15 of his 21 home runs against righties with a rock-solid .223 ISO, and this matchup checks out, too.
Gusto’s home runs per nine innings jump from 0.59 at home to 1.67 on the road, and he’s also served up a massive 47.2% hard-hit rate and 37.6% squared-up contact rate to left-handed hitters across his 16 starts.
- ML/RL bets: 59-33, +28.53 units
- Over/Under bets: 33-30, +0.88 units
Marlins vs Diamondbacks weather
The retractable roof will be closed at Chase Field tonight.
Marlins vs Diamondbacks odds
- Moneyline: Marlins 45% | Diamondbacks 56%
- Run line: Marlins +1.5 (63%) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (38%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (52%) | Under 8.5 (49%)
Marlins vs Diamondbacks trend
The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the run line in 14 of their last 25 home games (+3.05 Units / 10% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Marlins vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, Ariz. |
| Date | Wednesday, September 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Marlins.TV, Diamondbacks.TV |
| Marlins starting pitcher | Ryan Gusto (1-5, 4.14 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Merrill Kelly (9-13, 4.97 ERA) |
Marlins vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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