The Tennessee Volunteers have tied their future to Josh Heupel, handing him a contract extension through the 2029 season last month.
In reality, that also means they're tied to the Georgia Bulldogs' dominance because Kirby Smart seems to have completely figured out Heupel’s offensive scheme.
My Georgia vs. Tennessee predictions and college football picks anticipate more frustration for the Vols when they face the Bulldogs at 3:30 ET on Saturday, September 13.
Georgia vs Tennessee prediction
Georgia vs Tennessee best bet: Georgia -4.5 (-102)
Georgia has covered the spread in every matchup against Heupel’s Tennessee Volunteers. Not only that, the Bulldogs have cleared the spread by an average of 8.6 points in those four matchups.
Credit to Georgia’s defense, as shocking as that obviously isn’t. Head coach Kirby Smart trusts his defensive backs in coverage against Tennessee’s receivers, and he has defensive backs worthy of that trust.
That leaves the Volunteers overly dependent on their run game, which, while improved, is not an efficient enough one to drive an offense. Very few run games are in any given season, perhaps six or eight total. Tennessee is not one of them.
Thus, the Volunteers have fallen an average of 10 points short of their Team Total before garbage time in those four meetings. Even with garbage time, that is a lofty 8.25 points short of their Team Total.
Few annual matchups have been as one-sided as Kirby Smart vs. Josh Heupel.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 10, 2025
Georgia has covered the spread in all four meetings.
Tennessee has fallen short of its Team Total in all four meetings.
Remove garbage time, short by 10 pts/g.
Georgia vs Tennessee should remain one-sided pic.twitter.com/TYOdULuwfa
Gunner Stockton is a step backward for Georgia, but the Bulldogs are used to playing complementary football, relying on their defense to create a few short fields and capitalizing on those. When holding an opponent to no more than 17 points in four straight meetings, that recipe creates ATS wins as well as outright wins. It should for a fifth time on Saturday.
Georgia vs Tennessee same-game parlay
Tennessee has not cleared its Team Total in four matchups with Georgia during the Josh Heupel Era, and assuming the Vols will peak this weekend at 21 points, it would then be a tall ask of Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton to clear this total.
Adding in a touchdown from Tennessee running back Star Thomas may seem odd when effectively betting a Tennessee Team Total Under, but realize the Vols have not thrown a touchdown pass against the Bulldogs in their last three matchups, while rushing for four.
Georgia vs Tennessee SGP
- Georgia -4.5
- Under 49.5
- Star Thomas Touchdown
Our deep-ball SGP: Georgia defense earns its star
It is difficult to succinctly summarize how poorly Tennessee's passing game has fared over the last three years against Georgia. Let's put it this way: On 106 dropbacks in their last three meetings, the Vols have managed a total of three explosive plays, one in each game.
Georgia vs Tennessee SGP
- Georgia -4.5
- Under 49.5
- Star Thomas Touchdown
- Joey Aguilar Under 201.5 Passing Yards
Georgia vs Tennessee game predictions
Georgia vs Tennessee moneyline prediction
Knoxville would rock for weeks if the Volunteers pulled off this upset, but betting on the better coach and the better defense should leave the Smoky Mountains quiet this weekend.
Georgia vs Tennessee spread prediction
It warrants repeating that Georgia has not only covered the spread in all four matchups against Josh Heupel and Tennessee, but also done so by more than a touchdown per game. The Volunteers have not been within a field goal of covering any of those four spreads, not even within six points, in the last two years.
Georgia vs Tennessee Over/Under prediction
Georgia still hopes to prove this wrong, but anyone who watched Gunner Stockton in the Sugar Bowl last year knows that the Bulldogs took a significant step backward at quarterback this season.
Georgia vs Tennessee odds
- Spread: Georgia -4.5 | Tennessee +4.5
- Moneyline: Georgia -178 | Tennessee +146
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 | Under 49.5
Georgia vs Tennessee trend to know
Georgia has gone 6-0 against the spread in the last six meetings against Tennessee. Find more college football betting trends for Georgia vs Tennessee.
How to watch Georgia vs Tennessee
| Location | Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN |
| Date | Saturday, September 13, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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