The Texas A&M Aggies will host a Florida Gators team riding a wave of renewed optimism.
Florida’s big home win over Texas last weekend may have temporarily quieted the ongoing speculation around Billy Napier’s job status. Now, the Gators aim to complete a sweep of the Lone Star State — but Texas A&M will have something to say about that.
My Florida vs. Texas A&M predictions break it all down as I bring you my college football picks for Saturday, October 11.
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Florida vs Texas A&M prediction
Florida vs Texas A&M best bet: First half Under 23.5 (-105)
I couldn’t have been more incorrect about the Florida Gators last week.
After failed attempts in the weeks prior, I was fully out on the Gators and thought the matchup represented the ideal spot to buy low on Texas, and Florida proved me wrong with a resounding victory.
Some of that was due to the continued poor play of QB Arch Manning, but that is taking too much away from the Gators' impressive defensive performance. It’s what, in part, has led me to the first half Under 23.5.
The Texas A&M Aggies have put up solid numbers this season with QB Marcel Reed at the helm, but it’s predicated on explosive plays. They’ll enter this matchup with a pass explosiveness number in the 78th percentile but a success rate overall that’s just about average.
Perhaps more importantly, the Aggies have failed to limit havoc plays, such as tackles for loss, allowing a rate of about 11%. This is problematic when facing the Gators compared to other teams because Florida has generated more havoc over the last few weeks.
On the other side of the ball, I still haven’t quite been able to buy into this Florida offense.
The numbers across the board are quite pedestrian, and it seems that if it’s going to have any success, it’s going to come on the ground via Jaden Baugh. The problem for the Gators in that regard is that this is where the strong A&M defense is at its best.
I expect the defenses to control this one, especially early.
Florida vs Texas A&M same-game parlay
I mentioned earlier that Florida has created more havoc recently, so the sack risk they pose to A&M gives this number on Reed some value.
I paired it with DJ Lagway Under 209.5 passing yards, which is multifaceted.
My projection came in at right around 198.5 and is a massive reason why the Aggies have been extremely good at limiting the explosive passing play. In addition to that, I think Lagway’s overall throwing volume could be low.
Florida vs Texas A&M SGP
- First half Under 23.5
- Marcel Reed Under 36.5 rushing yards
- DJ Lagway Under 209.5 passing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: A whole whack of Unders
It makes sense to throw in the first quarter Under at plus money for all of the same reasons we made our best bet.
I’m going to add in Reed to find paydirt, and because it’s noncorrelated, we get a huge multiplier. I’m low on his overall rushing yards because of the sack risk, but I expect he’ll see a good dosage of carries in the red zone.
Florida vs Texas A&M SGP
- First half Under 23.5
- Marcel Reed Under 36.5 rushing yards
- DJ Lagway Under 209.5 passing yards
- First quarter Under 9.5
- Marcel Reed anytime TD
Florida vs Texas A&M game predictions
Florida vs Texas A&M moneyline prediction
This would feel like the ideal spot to fade Texas A&M, but it’s at home, and the Gators are coming off a massive win. I cannot overlook the situational elements favoring them and think that is ultimately the deciding factor in this one.
Florida vs Texas A&M spread prediction
I’ve flipped off my original opinion earlier in the week, and I’m now leaning toward the Gators to get the cover. With such a low-scoring game expected, a spread over a touchdown seems like a step too much.
Florida vs Texas A&M Over/Under prediction
The first half Under is my best bet, so I naturally like the full game Under as well, as two strong defenses have specific strengths in the areas each offense excels at the most.
Florida vs Texas A&M odds
- Spread: Florida -7.5 (-102) | Texas A&M +7.5 (-120)
- Moneyline: Florida +230 | Texas A&M -280
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-105) | Under 47.5 (-115)
Florida vs Texas A&M trend to know
Texas A&M has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.00 Units / 45% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Florida vs Texas A&M.
How to watch Florida vs Texas A&M
| Location | Kyle Field, College Station, TX |
| Date | Saturday, October 11, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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