The East Carolina Pirates may be holding onto slim hopes of contending in the American this season, but a road trip to face the Tulane Green Wave is likely to put those hopes to the test.
My East Carolina vs. Tulane predictions see the Green Wave’s defense putting an end to those ambitions.
Let's get into my college football picks for Thursday, October 9.
East Carolina vs Tulane prediction
East Carolina vs Tulane best bet: East Carolina Team Total Under 23.5 (-114)
The best way to knock Tulane’s defense back onto its heels is with a repetitive, down-to-down rushing attack. The Green Wave rank No. 131 in rushing success rate against, but frankly, that is somewhat by design.
Tulane does not mind if you run for four yards at a time over and over again. At some point, you are going to fail to gain those four yards and the drive will then stall.
East Carolina will not try that, ranking No. 107 in rushing success rate and No. 111 in expected points added (EPA) per rush, per CFB-graphs.com.
But then the issue becomes, everything the Pirates want to try is not a smart approach against the Green Wave. Jon Sumrall’s defense remains one of the best in the Group of Five.
East Carolina’s best hope is to rely on continued late-down success, converting 49.5% of late downs this season, No. 26 in the country. But that is not a sustainable approach at any point in the year, the third-down boogeyman nearly as undefeated as time itself.
East Carolina vs Tulane same-game parlay
Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff has done quite well this year avoiding sacks, pressured on 30.4% of dropbacks but suffering from them at the 9th-best rate in the country.
Instead, he gets loose and keeps the plays positive. Retzlaff has cleared this rushing prop while not throwing multiple touchdown passes in three of five games this season, games in which Tulane went 2-1 against the spread.
East Carolina vs Tulane SGP
- East Carolina Team Total Under 23.5
- Tulane -6.5
- Jake Retzlaff Over 56.5 rushing yards
- Jake Retzlaff Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
Our deep-ball SGP: Retzlaff Perseveres Through Pirates Defense
By no means is Jake Retzlaff an inherent world-beater, but this should be a matchup that forces him to carry an inordinate burden.
As East Carolina's underappreciated defense forces Retzlaff out of the pocket, the Pirates will fail to actually notch sacks.
That will allow Retzlaff to keep drives alive while slowing down the game as a whole.
East Carolina vs Tulane SGP
- East Carolina Team Total Under 23.5
- Tulane -6.5
- Jake Retzlaff Over 56.5 rushing yards
- Jake Retzlaff Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
- Jake Retzlaff touchdown
- Under 53.5
East Carolina vs Tulane game predictions
East Carolina vs Tulane moneyline prediction
If East Carolina cannot be trusted to score much, then obviously Tulane is the savvy moneyline bet.
Furthermore, the Green Wave have gone 13-1 outright as a regular-season favorite in the year-plus of Jon Sumrall’s tenure, the sole loss coming in last year’s season finale against Memphis, when Tulane already had a berth secured in the conference title game.
East Carolina vs Tulane spread prediction
Tulane is 8-2 against the spread as a favorite of no more than two possessions during Sumrall’s time.
East Carolina vs Tulane Over/Under prediction
Despite having a quality quarterback in Katin Houser leading the way to a top-quarter passing attack, East Carolina has gone Under the total in all four of its FBS games this season.
East Carolina vs Tulane odds
- Spread: East Carolina -6.5 | Tulane +6.5
- Moneyline: East Carolina +194 | Tulane -235
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 | Under 53.5
East Carolina vs Tulane trend to know
Tulane is 6-0 against the spread as a one-possession favorite in the regular season under Jon Sumrall. Find more college football betting trends for East Carolina vs Tulane.
How to watch East Carolina vs Tulane
| Location | Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA |
| Date | Thursday, October 9, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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