A week after arguably the biggest Group of Six game of the season, the Week 9 slate isn't as loaded, but it's headlined by a major rivalry game and a key matchup in American Conference play.
It would be malpractice not to include a rivalry known as "Deeper Than Hate" in my Week 9 Group of Six picks, especially with App State coming off the G6 upset of the year.
Along with App State vs. Georgia Southern, my G6 college football picks include MAC and C-USA powers in advantageous games, North Dakota State in a perfect bounce-back spot, and a matchup between two American teams fresh off wild comebacks.
Week 9 Group of 6 college football picks
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| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Bowling Greenvs  Western Michigan |
-13.5 49% |
 Florida International vs  Liberty |
-13.5 53% |
 UTEP vs  North Dakota State |
-23.5 52% |
 App State vs  Georgia Southern |
-4.5 53% |
 Armyvs  Memphis |
-5.5 50% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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CFB Group of 6 picks this week
Bowling Green vs Western Michigan: Western Michigan -13.5
Western Michigan's shootout loss to Toledo last week might have been a peek at this year's MAC Championship matchup, and while the Broncos lost, it's clear the defending conference champs are still a wagon... just ask Michigan. Bowling Green doesn't stand a chance on the road, and I'd take WMU to cover up to -16.5.
The Falcons are 2-6 in Eddie George's second season at the helm, and 1-3 ATS away from home. Bowling Green has failed to cover in each of its last two MAC games and is the only team in the conference allowing 380+ yards per game while totaling fewer than 290 itself.
WMU's physical run game ranks 31st in the country in EPA per rush and should have no trouble moving the ball against the Falcons, who allow the sixth-most rushing yards per game in the country (214.8).
Once the Broncos go up, Bowling Green's offense (132nd in adjusted EPA per play) won't move the ball enough to cover against a Scoop Gardner Jr. led WMU defense; Gardner is third nationally in pressures (35).
Florida International vs Liberty: Liberty -13.5
Liberty looks like it's ready to be back on top of Conference USA for the foreseeable future after a down year last season. Jamey Chadwell's offense is cooking every conference foe the Flames play, with Liberty sitting at 5-0 ATS since Week 3, and 3-0 in CUSA action.
Led by a spread-option attack that tops the conference in offensive success rate (47.4%), Liberty has beaten its CUSA opponents by an average of 25.3 points per game, and I would take the Flames to cover as much as -15.5 against Florida International.
FIU is just 1-4 ATS since Week 3 and has dropped two straight Conference USA games, including a loss to Middle Tennessee at home as a 10.5-point favorite. The Panthers' offense can't be trusted, ranking 95th in success rate (42%) and QB JJ Kohl sitting second in the country in interceptions (8).
The Flames have one of the best run games in the G6 (21st nationally in EPA per rush) and a big-play passing attack with Deshawn Purdie and Makai Jackson. Middling CUSA teams can't compete with a program that has similar resources to Power Four programs.
UTEP vs North Dakota State: North Dakota State -23.5
In what will likely be the biggest game of the G6 season, North Dakota State fell to New Mexico, 21-16. Despite the loss, the Bison should get right back on track in Week 9 against one of the country's worst teams, UTEP. The Miners' only win this season came against an FCS program, and they're 0-6 ATS vs. FBS opponents.
NDSU is playable up to -30.5 against a UTEP team that lost by 54 to New Mexico a few weeks ago and has been outscored 164-24 on the road this season. The Miners' offense ranks 132nd nationally in success rate (36.2%) and is likely to be held to fewer than 10 by a Bison defense that leads the country in points allowed per opportunity (1.84).
While NDSU QB Nathan Hayes struggled against the Lobos, he should have no problem pushing the ball downfield against UTEP. Hayes ranks top 20 in the country in big-time throw rate (6.5%), and this UTEP defense ranks 133rd in EPA per dropback.
App State vs Georgia Southern: Georgia Southern -4.5
This year's edition of "Deeper Than Hate" has an added wrinkle of App State coming off an emotional double-digit comeback to upset James Madison as a double-digit underdog in overtime. Does that make this a major letdown spot for the Mountaineers? I think so, especially with the game being in Statesboro and Georgia Southern being as well-rested as it gets... they haven't played since Oct. 15.
The Eagles have won four of the last five matchups, including three straight, and I like Georgia Southern to cover up to -6.5. While Clay Helton's team is just 3-4, they've been much better than their record, covering in six of seven games this year. They're 3-0 ATS in Statesboro, which includes covering against a ranked Houston team.
Quarterback Max Johnson is questionable for the game, but with more than two weeks off, it sounds like he'll be good to go. Johnson ranks top 50 in the country in QBR (64.7) and adjusted completion percentage (74.9%), and should be able to pick on an App State defense ranked 96th by SP+.
Army vs Memphis: Memphis -5.5
Last Thursday night, Memphis came back from down double digits to beat East Carolina in overtime, and last Friday night, Army came back from down double digits to beat Tulsa with a walk-off field goal. Now they play each other, and with the Tigers at home, I like Charles Huff's program to cover -6.5 or better.
Memphis has one of the best offenses in the Group of Six, led by arguably the best QB in the G6, Marcus Stokes. Stokes is third in the country in TD passes (21) and has no qualms about pushing the ball deep; he's 15th nationally in ADOT (11.4). Army's defense is at its worst defending the pass, ranking 129th in EPA per dropback.
While Memphis has yet to play a triple-option offense this season, it has the athleticism and talent in its front seven to slow down Army QB Cale Hellums. Once the Black Knights are trailing, it's a big ask to have Hellums try to throw them back into this game.
He's attempted just 20 passes in Army's last three games, and Memphis' defense is top 25 in EPA per dropback.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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