I can’t believe it’s already the third Saturday in October.
For college football, it means rivalry games are coming hot and heavy, including the aptly named Third Saturday in October between Alabama and Tennessee.
But this week, my college football best bets focus on the Holy War out in Provo, and the rivalry Diego Pavia seems to be trying to start with the entire SEC.
Put some respect on Vandy’s name, who is now favored vs. LSU.
And for even more Week 8 action, check out Douglas Farmer’s college football picks.
College football best bets Week 8
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 California Golden Bears |
-8.5 | -110 |
| Vanderbilt Commodores |
-2.5 | -110 |
| Utah Utes |
-3.5 | -110 |
| 💲 All three parlayed | +595 |
Cal -8.5
Utter catastrophe. Unmitigated disaster. Dumpster fire. Take your pick to describe Bill Belichick and the North Carolina Tar Heels football program.
There are so many rumours coming out of Chapel Hill, it’s hard to keep up. What isn’t hard to keep up with is the product on the field.
On the surface, a 2-3 record doesn’t look that bad. But the results against Power Four have been downright humiliating.
UNC is 0-3 straight up and against the spread in matchups against TCU, UCF, and Clemson. The Tar Heels have scored just 33 points in those games while surrendering 120.
The advanced numbers are even uglier. The Tar Heels rank 127th in EPA per play on offense and 129th in EPA per play on defense. They rank 115th in defensive success rate and 94th in defensive success rate. It’s all just bad.
And now you expect me to believe that they’re going to keep a game within 10 points against one of the more exciting young quarterbacks in the nation when they travel across the country to take on Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and the Cal Golden Bears.
Cal has had an up-and-down season and enters this game at 4-2. JKS has been electric at times, having thrown for 1,487 yards and nine touchdowns this season. Interceptions have burned him a bit lately, though. While the defense has been improving, ranking 56th in success rate.
If JKS can avoid the turnovers, I don't see how North Carolina keeps this game close.
Vanderbilt -2.5
We are living in the greatest timeline.
The only evidence we need is that it’s the middle of October and the Vanderbilt Commodores are favorites against the LSU Tigers.
And here’s the thing. I don’t think they’re favored by enough and the only reason the spread is just 2.5 points is because of the name of the opponent this week.
Let’s get this out of the way. Vandy QB Diego Pavia is awesome. He will leave it all on the field for his team and the results this year have been outstanding.
Pavia has thrown for 1,409 yards with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions, while adding another 352 yards and two scores on the ground. He’s led a Vandy offense that ranks second in EPA per play and offensive success rate.
Simply put, the Commodores are really good.
Now, they’ll go up against a Tigers defense that got off to a hot start but has cooled off a bit lately. LSU enters this game ranked 37th in defensive success rate and 56th in success rate on dropbacks and I think that will be one of the keys here.
Pavia is a threat to run always, but that threat should open things up for him in the passing game.
Meanwhile, the LSU offense continues to struggle. The offensive line has dealt with injuries and inconsistent play, not allowing Garrett Nussmeier to find any rhythm. LSU ranks 77th in success rate and has not scored more than 23 points vs. any FBS opponent this season.
And Vandy’s D hasn’t been too bad either, ranking 25th in EPA per play and 43rd in success rate.
Combine all that with Vandy being at home and Broadway should be bumping on Saturday. I think the Commodores win this by at least a touchdown.
Utah -3.5
It’s one of the greatest rivalries in college football. The Holy War returns when the Utah Utes head to Provo to take on the BYU Cougars. And what makes this edition of the Holy War even better is that both teams are ranked.
The Cougars and freshman QB Bear Bachmeier have been a great story so far this year, and things can always get crazy in Provo at night, particularly in a rivalry game. But I think the Cougs are a little overmatched here.
BYU is coming off an overtime win over Arizona coughed up a 10-point lead late and I have some questions about this Cougars’ defense against QBs who can run, like Devon Dampier and the Utes.
BYU gave up 21 points and 172 rushing yards to Kaidon Salter and Colorado, and then 24 points to West Virginia and third-string QB Khalil Wilkins. Dampier and the Utes are a much better offense than those two teams.
Dampier has been outstanding this season, throwing for 1,131 yards while completing more than 70% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions, while adding 378 yards and five scores on the ground. As a result, Utah ranks eighth in the country in offensive success rate.
On top of that, Bachmeier has been great, but the freshman hasn’t seen anything like this Utah defense. Those factors combined has me thinking that Utah will emerge from the Holy War with not only a win, but a cover as well.
Triple Option Parlay for Week 8
Cal -8.5
Vanderbilt -2.5
Utah -3.5
My weekly Triple Option column is 10-11 this season for -1.68 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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