Quarterback health uncertainty on both sides of the ball has this line in flux, but that has also created value.
All signs point toward Arizona State Sun Devils quarterback Sam Leavitt returning from an ankle injury, while Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Behren Morton remains questionable with a right leg injury.
My Texas Tech vs. Arizona State predictions follow one of gambling’s strongest axioms.
Find out more in my college football picks for Saturday, October 18.
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Texas Tech vs Arizona State prediction
Texas Tech vs Arizona State best bet: Texas Tech -7.5 (-102)
The public has overreacted to Sam Leavitt practicing without visible ankle tape this week. Perhaps the Arizona State quarterback truly is 100%, though it is more likely his ankle is a bit balky, as ankles always are until given genuine weeks to recover.
Even if he is 100%, it was too much of a move, shifting this line by 2.5 points from its opener of Texas Tech by 10.
That -10 already factored in that Leavitt was (and is) more likely to play than Red Raiders quarterback Behren Morton. If both quarterbacks were in, Texas Tech would likely be favored by two touchdowns. The gametime decision worry on Morton had already dropped this spread to -10.
The encouraging news around Leavitt should not have moved it further. Sell Arizona State on that good news.
Looking beyond the number on the board, the Red Raiders’ defense is too good. At worst, it is a top-20 unit.
Opponent-adjusted EPA numbers argue it may be the best defense in the country, per CFB-graphs.com. The idea of these defensive ends chasing Leavitt, if anything less than 100%, should be enough to encourage you to buy on Texas Tech at -7.5.
Texas Tech vs Arizona State same-game parlay
Does Texas Tech have the best defense in the country? Looking at opponent-adjusted EPA rankings, it just might.
Defensive lines like the Red Raiders' front do not relent. They only make life miserable for opponents.
Trust that defense to hold Arizona State in check all night, including in the first half, and thus condemn this game to an Under, especially given the uncertain status of Morton.
Texas Tech vs Arizona State SGP
- Texas Tech -7.5
- Under 51.5
- Texas Tech 1H moneyline
Texas Tech vs Arizona State odds
- Spread: Texas Tech -7.5 (-110) | Arizona State +7.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Texas Tech -275 | Arizona State +225
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (-110) | Under 51.5 (-110)
Texas Tech vs Arizona State trend to know
Four of Arizona State’s last five games have gone Under their totals, the exception being last week’s blowout loss to Utah. Those previous four games, all against FBS competition, had fallen short of their totals by an average of 10 points. Find more college football betting trends for Texas Tech vs Arizona State.
How to watch Texas Tech vs Arizona State
| Location | Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ |
| Date | Saturday, October 18, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Texas Tech vs Arizona State latest injuries
Texas Tech vs Arizona State weather
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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