Of all the underdog Wildcats to bet on last week, I bet on the only one that lost. Northwestern beat Penn State, but little fault can be found in not seeing that coming. Kansas State beat TCU, costing a best bet here and frustrating further because two defensive touchdowns sparked that two-score win. And Arizona lost in overtime to BYU.
The good news is, I cannot doubt Kansas State this weekend.
Arizona snatching defeat from the jaws of victory doomed last week’s best bets to a 1-3-1 result, losing 1.21 units, knocking the season tallies to 17-22-1 and -4.06. What should have been a delightful winning week instead snapped a three-week run of profits.
But that is why this is a marathon. Make up for the slow start to the season gradually, and not in one fell swoop. Thus, here are some Week 8 college football predictions and college football picks.
College football predictions Week 8
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Alabama -8.5 |
-102 |
 Ohio State -26.5 |
-110 |
 Kentucky Team Total Under 14.5 |
-125 |
 Oklahoma State Team Total Under 16.5 |
+105 |
 Washington moneyline |
+185 |
Alabama -8.5
Sure, the Alabama Crimson Tide pushed as field-goal favorites last week at Missouri, but that garbage-time touchdown is not reason enough to worry about this bet now. Alabama had rattled off four straight wins against the spread before that push, three of those against Power Four opponents exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 5.5 points.
We most likely will never understand how this Alabama team laid such an egg in the season opener against Florida State.
That Week 1 Alabama-Florida State result is going to end up the most confusing of the season, isn't it?
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 11, 2025
Since then, Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has become arguably the most accurate passer in the country, as his combination of touch and placement makes every pass seem catchable. Simpson drives the No. 1 passing offense in the country, in terms of expected points added (EPA) per dropback, per CFB-graphs.com, lending reason for the Tide to throw the ball 8.1% more often than an average team would in a given game state.
That exact type of efficiency raises a team’s ceiling to lofty heights.
The Tennessee Volunteers are built similarly but don't operate at the same absolute peak. And that kind of peak is necessary to keep up with Alabama when your defense cannot be thoroughly trusted. And the Volunteers’ defense can’t be, which is a letdown after becoming an elite unit last season.
Josh Heupel claimed to have built a full roster, and for much of 2024, Tennessee looked the part. Sure, the Vols can currently cling to a 5-1 outright record and a three-game winning streak, but recognize that Tennessee has not won against the spread in more than a month, has not won against the spread against an FBS opponent except for the season opener against Syracuse, and has allowed every opponent to clear its team total this season.
That includes FCS-level East Tennessee State. That includes laughable UAB. That includes both Mississippi State and Arkansas.
When all six of your opponents have hit the Overs on their team totals by an average of 8.2 points, you should expect to find yourself in heaps of trouble against Alabama’s dominant offense.
Ohio State -26.5
If college football teaches you one thing, let it be that not even the best hire in a dream job assures success.
If college football teaches you two things, let the second be that it can always get worse.
The Wisconsin Badgers are an example of both.
Week 7 Reactions to ready you for Week 8
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 12, 2025
🔸Don't overreact to Oregon's or Oklahoma's losses. Neither is a big deal.
🔸Overreact to Michigan's. That pass D looks worse and worse. Enter Washington, Ohio St.
🔸Wisconsin, it can always get worse.
via @Covers: https://t.co/fcH8eAWD3H
When the Badgers hired Luke Fickell, it looked like the perfect match. An overachieving coach with a penchant for defense and program building, taking over a patient program with a fan base intent on running the ball and winning games like the calendar still reads 1995.
News flash: It is not 1995. Nothing that dictated life then remains true now aside from the Ohio State Buckeyes' absurdly high floor. For a laugh, realize the only team in the current Top 10 that finished 1995 in the Top 10 is indeed the Buckeyes. For a greater laugh, look at the AP rankings behind No. 6 Ohio State to end the 1995 season: Kansas State, Northwestern, Kansas, and Virginia Tech.
Wildcats, huh?
Anyway, Fickell has fallen flat in Madison, and that is about to get worse.
The only reason this spread is within four touchdowns is a concern about pace. Could Wisconsin slow down this game enough to keep Ohio State from running up the score simply by depriving the Buckeyes of possessions?
Unlikely.
When Iowa scores 37 points on you, there is little further hope.
Ohio State may need only four touchdowns to cover this spread, given how woeful the Badgers offense has become. It manages a quality drive on just one third of its possessions, the 30th-lowest rate in the country. And then Wisconsin scores just 2.98 points per quality drive, ranking No. 90 in the country, which is utterly embarrassing when recognizing the obvious that a mere field goal would improve that plight.
Don’t count on the field goals this weekend: The Buckeyes rank No. 1 in the country in points allowed per quality drive against, at just 1.3.
Illinois put up some points late against Ohio State, scoreboard massaging more than anything else. Wisconsin does not have an offense capable of even that.
Expect a rout, an unfortunate one at Fickell’s expense as an Ohio State alum and former coach. Perhaps mercy keeps this game within 35 points, but mercy should not yield multiple scores from a broken offense.
It can always get worse.
Kentucky Team Total Under 14.5
The Kentucky Wildcats are so bad that your approach to betting on or against them should now understand that SEC opponents will mail these games in.
The Texas Longhorns have plenty to figure out, but coming off an impressive Red River win, Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian will not dial up anything new against Kentucky, and he doesn't need to.
The Wildcats are the worst SEC team offensively by orders of magnitude. Looking at EPA per snap, South Carolina breaks even, ranking No. 64 in the country by sticking exactly to the data’s expectations of a team in any given game state. Kentucky ranks 29 spots lower by losing 0.068 expected points per snap.
To give that a touch of better context, Kentucky is further behind the second-worst offense in the SEC, South Carolina’s, than the No. 15 Gamecocks are behind No. 11 LSU.
Texas does not need to do much to outscore Kentucky. In fact, the Longhorns should intentionally do little. Once they are up by two scores, expect Sarkisian to call run after run after run, shortening this game out of indifference more than anything else. Texas cannot impress anyone by routing Kentucky, and it cannot learn much about its roster against such an overmatched opponent.
And thus, the Longhorns defense — already far and away the best unit in this game — will be aided by the offense playing keep away out of boredom. In fact, that combination lends some value to betting No Kentucky Touchdowns at +475 at DraftKings with a quarter of a unit.
Oklahoma State Team Total Under 16.5
My mother taught me many things. She made sure I knew how to type 80 words per minute. I have been known to make her buttermilk waffles in the middle of the night. And my insistence on buying only good steaks from an actual butcher derives directly from her grandfather.
But my mother never taught me to keep my mouth shut if I have nothing nice to say. That is the only reason I can talk about Oklahoma State’s offense.
Because there is nothing nice to say about the Oklahoma State Cowboys offense.
It ranks last in the country in EPA per dropback and fourth from the bottom in points per quality drive at just 2.02. How bad do you have to be where it matters most to score almost a point less per scoring opportunity than Wisconsin?
Perhaps most subtle yet also most dooming, the Cowboys rank No. 135 in early-downs EPA, suggesting they are behind the chains almost by default, and then also No. 130 in late-downs success, no surprise given how far behind the chains they are almost by default.
The Cincinnati Bearcats' defensive front is underappreciated, and it should just about stop Oklahoma State in its tracks. The Bearcats’ greatest defensive weakness is against the pass on a down-to-down basis, but the Cowboys are the last team in the country to exploit that with eventual explosive plays.
Washington moneyline
Stop me if I have mentioned this before, but the Michigan Wolverines' pass defense is wildly vulnerable to down-to-down successes. This has been apparent since the season opener against New Mexico, and it has cost the Wolverines dearly against Oklahoma and USC. Nebraska nearly added a third regret to that list.
After the Lobos put the world on alert about this Michigan deficiency by succeeding on 43% of their pass plays, Oklahoma went ahead and succeeded on 42% of its passes, then aggressively topped by Nebraska’s 51% against Michigan. That was before last weekend’s USC showing, succeeding through the air on 66% of dropbacks.
The Wolverines have every sort of problem on the defensive back end, and that is costing them repeatedly this season. The subsequent sadnesses for Michigan fans this fall are both predictable and inevitable.
For some quick context, Oklahoma ranks No. 21 in the country in dropback success rate at 47.5%, Nebraska sits at No. 6 at 50.9%, and USC succeeds on 53% of dropbacks, No. 4 at the FBS level. Of course, those numbers are all inflated by having faced the Wolverines.
Enter the Washington Huskies, quarterback Demond Williams Jr., and the No. 11 dropback success rate in the country at 49.6%. By the end of the weekend, expect that to sit above 50%, probably near Nebraska.
And just like those three notable Wolverines opponents, the Huskies like to throw the ball, doing so 6.3% more often than an average team would.
Washington will throw often and consistently against a defense unable to stop passes. Michigan fans will simply not enjoy this October.
My weekly CFB best bets column is 17-22-1 this season for -4.06 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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