After winning the Red River Rivalry, the Texas Longhorns hope to move back into the SEC title game conversation with a win over the lowly Kentucky Wildcats.
It’s been more than two years since the Wildcats won an SEC game at home, and a loss here could see the fanbase turn its full attention towards the basketball season.
Find out who I like against the spread in my Texas vs. Kentucky predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 18.
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Texas vs Kentucky prediction
Texas vs Kentucky best bet: Texas -12.5 (-115)
Everyone has their weaknesses, but some are more legendary than others.
Superman has Kryptonite. Achilles had his heel. Mark Stoops has bye weeks.
Since taking the Kentucky Wildcats head coaching job ahead of the 2013 season, bye weeks have been a massive thorn in the side of Stoops. The Wildcats are just 4-13 against the spread in their 17 games following a bye.
When you whittle that down to SEC games, Stoops and his team have covered just twice in 15 attempts. And to make matters worse, they’ve covered only once as an underdog following a bye week—a win over rivals Louisville back in 2014.
The Texas Longhorns are good at everything Kentucky isn’t. The Longhorns have an outstanding defense, which presents a terrible matchup for an offense ranked 124th in passing success and 95th in available yards allowed.
The Longhorns are ranked in the Top 10 in early down EPA, available yards allowed, and EPA/rush.
The Wildcats are also not very good defensively. The secondary is giving up chunk plays, and Arch Manning won’t have to work hard to hurt them through the air. Kentucky also can’t get to the quarterback, with just two sacks in three SEC affairs.
Kentucky ranks 93rd in available yards allowed, 93rd in quality drive rate allowed, and 84th in offensive quality drive rate. There are no threats on the outside in the passing game—in fact, the garbage-time touchdown against Georgia was Kentucky’s ONLY score this season by a wideout.
Texas won’t let Kentucky score points, and the Longhorns will win by three scores as Stoops yet again fails to have his team ready to go despite having two weeks to prepare.
Texas vs Kentucky same-game parlay
Despite having played just five games, Kentucky has allowed the second-most completions of 30+ yards in the SEC. The Wildcats are also allowing nearly 10 completions of double-digit yards per contest and have given up 19 completions of 20+ yards.
DeAndre Moore and Ryan Wingo should both benefit. Moore’s average depth of target this season is 13.8 yards, and he’s caught at least three passes for 50+ yards in three straight games. He’s also averaging 2.31 yards per route run, primarily from the slot.
Wingo’s ADOT is a ridiculous 16.3 yards, and he’s averaging 1.66 yards per route run. He’s already run 179 routes through six games, leads the Longhorns in targets and catches, and will punish the Wildcats after the catch.
Texas vs Kentucky SGP
- Texas Longhorns -12.5
- DeAndre Moore Jr Over 42.5 receiving yards
- Ryan Wingo Over 46.5 receiving yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Manning to the House!
Kentucky managed just 13 points against South Carolina and needed a very late touchdown to reach 14 against Georgia.
Texas has allowed just two touchdowns and four red zone visits in its two conference games. With the one-dimensional offense, Kentucky won’t pose much of a threat to score, much less get more than two touchdowns.
Kentucky likes to play bend-but-don’t-break defense, especially in the red zone. The Wildcats have given up just one passing touchdown in three SEC games.
But the Wildcats can’t stop allowing rushing touchdowns inside the 20, and Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton rushed for two touchdowns in the first half of the win over Kentucky.
Arch Manning has scored five touchdowns with his legs and has found the end zone in three games.
Texas vs Kentucky SGP
- Texas Longhorns -12.5
- DeAndre Moore Jr Over 42.5 receiving yards
- Ryan Wingo Over 46.5 receiving yards
- Kentucky Wildcats team total Under 14.5
- Arch Manning anytime touchdown
Texas vs Kentucky odds
- Spread: Texas -12.5 (-110) | Kentucky +12.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Texas -500 | Kentucky +375
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 (-110) | Under 43.5 (-110)
Texas vs Kentucky trend to know
Kentucky has only covered the Spread in 3 of their last 10 games (-4.70 Units / -43% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Texas vs Kentucky.
How to watch Texas vs Kentucky
| Location | Kroger Field, Lexington, KY |
| Date | Saturday, October 18, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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