The Vanderbilt Commodores are favored against the LSU Tigers for the first time since... actually, the Covers.com database does not go back that far.
At the very least, this is the first time in more than 30 years that the Commodores have been favored against the Tigers, and the reality is, they should be favored this weekend.
Welcome to college football in 2025. This is why immediate eligibility upon transferring is a boon for the sport.
My LSU vs. Vanderbilt predictions expect Diego Pavia to focus on the less-heralded half of his game.
Read more in my college football picks for Saturday, October 18.
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LSU vs Vanderbilt prediction
LSU vs Vanderbilt best bet: Diego Pavia Over 204.5 passing yards (-114)
Quarterbacks run often against LSU, facing designed QB runs at the seventh-highest rate in the country. However, those moments go badly for those quarterbacks, losing 0.204 expected points per designed run against the Tigers.
Don’t do it, Diego.
Diego Pavia might be best known for his rushing attempts, but the reality is Vanderbilt already emphasizes the pass, throwing the ball 6.9% more often than would be expected from an average team in a given game state, per CFB-graphs.com, the 28th-highest rate in the country.
And in recent weeks, that has been further emphasized. The Commodores have aired it out at least 13.1% more often than should be expected in each of their last three games, peaking thus far at 16.1% against Alabama two weeks ago.
Focusing on the air is the better way to attack LSU’s defense, as well. Against the Tigers, Vanderbilt should remove nearly all of Pavia’s designed runs from the playbook.
If Pavia simply plays well, Vandy should have a chance against most teams in the country, certainly against a flawed LSU team.
LSU vs Vanderbilt same-game parlay
Pavia's boost in passing yards will largely come because he remains in the pocket in this matchup. Notably, he exceeded this rushing prop by just 1.5 yards against Alabama despite late desperation, and Pavia fell well short at South Carolina.
SEC play is limiting Pavia's rushing, but not Sedric Alexander's scoring. The running back had both rushing and receiving touchdowns against the Tide and the Gamecocks.
LSU vs Vanderbilt SGP
- Diego Pavia Over 204.5 passing yards
- Diego Pavia Under 56.5 rushing yards
- Sedric Alexander anytime touchdown
Our deep-ball SGP: Rounding into form
Garrett Nussmeier looks healthier now than he did at the start of the season, and it may be time to see the predicted Heisman contender.
Nussmeier has all the physical tools, and if he is indeed nearing full strength, LSU's pivot should be able to show off in this top-20 tilt.
LSU vs Vanderbilt SGP
- Diego Pavia Over 204.5 passing yards
- Diego Pavia Under 56.5 rushing yards
- Sedric Alexander anytime touchdown
- Garrett Nussmeier Over 257.5 passing yards
LSU vs Vanderbilt odds
- Spread: LSU +2.5 (-110) | Vanderbilt -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: LSU +116 | Vanderbilt -136
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-110)
LSU vs Vanderbilt trend to know
When these two met last year, Vanderbilt covered the spread, the game went Under its total, and Diego Pavia exceeded his season average in passing yards while falling short of his average in rushing yards. Find more college football betting trends for LSU vs Vanderbilt.
How to watch LSU vs Vanderbilt
| Location | FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN |
| Date | Saturday, October 18, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
LSU vs Vanderbilt latest injuries
LSU vs Vanderbilt weather
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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