For my money, the Miami Hurricanes look like the best team in the country, and this week may be one of the last times they get to prove that for a while, as they welcome the Louisville Cardinals to town for a Friday night thriller.
The Cardinals are 4-1, but they’ve left a little to be desired since conference play started, and are nearly two-touchdown road underdogs for this matchup.
My Louisville vs. Miami predictions explain why that spread may not be big enough and bring you my college football picks for this ACC clash on Friday, October 17.
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Louisville vs Miami prediction
Louisville vs Miami best bet: Miami -13.5 (-112)
The 5-0 Miami Hurricanes enter this week’s matchup with the visiting Louisville Cardinals as the No. 2-ranked team in the nation with one of the best resumes in the country, which includes wins over Notre Dame, Florida, and Florida State.
The offense looks balanced. We are witnessing the best version of Carson Beck, and with Mark Fletcher Jr. pounding the rock in the ground game, watch out. Miami ranks ninth in EPA per pass and EPA per rush.
Rueben Bains Jr., a potential Top-5 pick, leads the 'Canes defense, which ranks fifth in both opponent EPA per dropback and EPA per rush.
Simply put, this Miami team does everything well, particularly in the trenches, and as long as it isn't making mistakes, it's hard to beat or even cover against.
Meaning, the Cardinals have a tough task ahead of them. They are 4-1 but are a little lucky to have just one L.
While the Cardinals defense has been solid, the offense has been inefficient, particularly since the start of conference play. Louisville ranks 76th in offensive success rate, which includes 61st on dropbacks and 88th on rushes.
Miller Moss was supposed to be the answer, but he has struggled the last two weeks, with just 6.7 yards per attempt and two interceptions. That’s not going to fly vs. this Miami defense.
The Canes’ edge in overall talent will become apparent as the game wears on. Louisville will have trouble scoring, and Miami will pull away in the second half, covering the spread in the process.
Louisville vs Miami same-game parlay
I like Fletcher to find the end zone on the way to this Miami win. He's looked like one of the best backs in the country, rushing for 428 yards at 5.5 per carry.
He’s scored five touchdowns, and his best performance came against the best defense he’s seen, when he carried the ball 24 times for 116 yards and a score against Florida.
Meanwhile, the last leg of this SGP may seem a little counterintuitive, but I expect Louisville to be trailing throughout, and that means Miller Moss will have to throw the football, something he’s been doing a lot of lately. Moss has attempted 99 passes over the past two games and should clear this number on sheer volume alone.
Louisville vs Miami SGP
- Miami -13.5
- Mark Fletcher Jr. anytime TD
- Miller Moss Over 254.5 passing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Fletch Lives
To pump up the value of this SGP, let's take Fletcher to find the endzone not just once, but multiple times, something he's done twice already this season.
Louisville vs Miami SGP
- Miami -13.5
- Mark Fletcher Jr. 2+ TDs
- Miller Moss Over 254.5 Passing Yards (+811)
Louisville vs Miami odds
- Spread: Louisville +13.5 | Miami -13.5
- Moneyline: Louisville +430 | Miami -590
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 | Under 50.5
Louisville vs Miami trend to know
Miami has covered the Spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home for +1.70 Units and a 19% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Louisville vs Miami.
How to watch Louisville vs Miami
| Location | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Date | Friday, October 17, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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