Auburn vs Mississippi Picks & Props
AUB vs MISS Picks
NCAAF PicksAuburn managed just 10 points with Brown under center against LSU, as seven of his 10 drives ended in punts and the Tigers went 5-of-16 on third down. Auburn’s passing success rate sits at 41.8%, 91st nationally, so drives that fall behind schedule die quickly.
Brown produces 0.35 EPA per rush, 20th among qualified runners, and Ole Miss owns the SEC’s worst run defense at 161.1 rushing yards allowed per game. Auburn will lean on that matchup, and a quarterback-heavy ground plan keeps the clock moving.
The Rebels rank ninth in opponent-adjusted offensive EPA per play, while Auburn’s defense allows a 45.5% success rate, 85th nationally. Losing Kewan Lacy stings less than it sounds. Makhi Frazier owns a 52.9% rushing success rate to Lacy’s 42.3%. Mississippi has a clear path to controlling this game in both trenches.
Auburn can’t sustain drives through the air which is why they've been a go-to Under team throughout the year for me. If Brown gets bottled up the way LSU managed, Auburn has no second gear, which pushes the Under and Auburn’s team total the same direction. If he breaks a few runs instead, they likely come on long, clock-draining drives that still favor the Under.
AUB vs MISS Consensus Picks
59% picking Auburn
Total Picks AUB 194, MISS 135
AUB vs MISS Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
AUB
B. Brown
(QB)
o197.5 Passing Yards
213.72 OVER
PROJECTION
+16.2
DIFFERENCE
25.93%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
T. Chambliss
(QB)
o274.5 Passing Yards
305.31 OVER
PROJECTION
+30.8
DIFFERENCE
24.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
AUB
B. Brown
(QB)
u64.5 Rushing Yards
53.61 UNDER
PROJECTION
-10.9
DIFFERENCE
25.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
T. Chambliss
(QB)
o19.5 Rushing Yards
23.15 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.6
DIFFERENCE
18.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
AUB
J. Cobb
(RB)
o37.5 Rushing Yards
43.17 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.7
DIFFERENCE
18.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
AUB
C. Nimrod
(WR)
o42.5 Receiving Yards
60.59 OVER
PROJECTION
+18.1
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
AUB
J. Johnson
(TE)
o11.5 Receiving Yards
20.40 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.9
DIFFERENCE
26.11%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
AUB
K. Singleton
(WR)
o54.5 Receiving Yards
70.50 OVER
PROJECTION
+16.0
DIFFERENCE
25.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MISS
C. Odom
(TE)
o41.5 Receiving Yards
54.40 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.9
DIFFERENCE
25.85%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
AUB
J. Koger
(WR)
o19.5 Receiving Yards
25.78 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.3
DIFFERENCE
23.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MISS
H. Fields
(WR)
o37.5 Receiving Yards
39.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.8
DIFFERENCE
22.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MISS
D. Alexander
(WR)
o87.5 Receiving Yards
94.98 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.5
DIFFERENCE
22.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MISS
T. Ray
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
34.72 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.2
DIFFERENCE
22.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
AUB
J. Cobb
(RB)
u1.5 Receptions
1.17 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
16.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MISS
D. Alexander
(WR)
o6.5 Receptions
6.74 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
3.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
AUB
C. Nimrod
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
4.38 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
3.64%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
AUB
K. Singleton
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions
4.86 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-10.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MISS
H. Fields
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions
2.92 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-16.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
AUB
J. Koger
(WR)
o1.5 Receptions
1.75 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-17.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MISS
T. Ray
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions
2.54 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-17.64%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
AUB
J. Cobb
(RB)
o8.5 Carries
9.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
T. Chambliss
(QB)
o7.5 Carries
8.52 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
10.29%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
T. Chambliss
(QB)
o21.5 Completions
25.42 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.9
DIFFERENCE
17.48%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
AUB
B. Brown
(QB)
o17.5 Completions
19.45 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.0
DIFFERENCE
13.43%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 6-0 in Rebels last 6 games as an underdog.
Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Ole Miss.
Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 games as a road favorite.
Road team is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Under is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 games as a favorite.
Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
ROI Trends
AUB vs MISS Top User Picks
'MrBaggins' is picking Auburn to cover (+10.5)
MrBaggins is #2 on picking games that Mississippi is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +4900 units on the season.
'bostonutah' is picking Auburn to cover (+10.5)
bostonutah is #4 on picking games that Mississippi is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +3950 units on the season.
'Jerrybook' is picking Auburn to cover (+10.5)
Jerrybook is #7 on picking games that Mississippi is in with a record of (4-3-0) and +3850 units on the season.
'JFT1010' is picking Auburn to cover (+10.5)
JFT1010 is #7 on picking games that Auburn is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.
'BluMyBoyLatvian' is picking Auburn to cover (+13.5)
BluMyBoyLatvian is #8 on picking games that Mississippi is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3500 units on the season.