March Madness betting tips off with the First Four play-in games on Thursday, and a No. 16 seed in the East Region of the NCAA Tournament is up for grabs when the Mount Saint Mary’s Mountaineers face the Texas Southern Tigers.
Mount Saint Mary’s upset its way to the Northeastern Conference title as a No. 4 seed in a four-team tournament, knocking off the two top seeds to advance to the Big Dance. Texas Southern took the SWAC Championship, stunning No. 1 seed Prairie View in the final. March Madness odds have Texas Southern as the early favorite.
Here are our March Madness picks and predictions for Mount Saint Mary’s vs. Texas Southern in the First Four on March 18.
Mount St Mary’s vs Texas Southern odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThe first game in tonight's First Four was a fence-jumper at FanDuel, where the line opened Texas Southern -1.5 and moved to pick 'em Monday, then to Mount St. Mary's -1 Tuesday, then back to pick. Mount St. Mary's returned to -1 Wednesday and is at -1.5 as of 2 p.m. ET today, while taking 62 percent of spread bets and 63 percent of spread money. The total opened at 133.5, peaked at 134.5, bottomed out at 131.5 and climbed back to 133.5, with ticket count and money running 2/1 on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Mount St Mary’s Mountaineers vs Texas Southern Tigers betting preview
Injuries
Mount St Mary’s: None.
Texas Southern: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 12-6 in the Mountaineers' last 18 games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Mount St Mary’s vs. Texas Southern.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
While casual NCAA basketball bettors may not be too familiar with the Mountaineers or the Tigers, this East Region play-in game is a beautiful contrast in styles.
Mount Saint Mary’s is among the most methodical offenses in the country, ranked 356th in tempo (62.2) and eating up an average of 20.1 seconds per possession. That plodding pace is a big reason why the Mountaineers allow only 62.2 points per game (16th).
Texas Southern, on the other hand, loves to rev the engines. The Tigers are 41st in tempo at KenPom.com, averaging 75.7 possessions per game and chew up only 16.2 seconds per offensive set. But while they can run the floor, they’re not the most dangerous scoring attack.
Texas Southern picks up almost 44 percent of its points off two-point field goals and shoots just 44.5 percent from the floor. Its offensive game plan is volume, something Mount Saint Mary’s doesn’t provide. The Mountaineers are a very different beast than the Tigers’ SWAC foes and they just defeated Bryant in the NEC title game, slowing down the Bulldogs’ fifth-ranked scoring attack which sits 14th in tempo in the country.
PREDICTION: Mount Saint Mary’s +2 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Mount Saint Mary’s has limited opponents to just 38 percent shooting over the last three games entering the tournament and also does a good job cleaning the defensive glass when forcing foes to miss. The Mountaineers boast a total rebound rate of 53.9 percent, which is Top-30 in the land.
The Tigers thrive on offensive rebounds and second-chance looks, pulling in more than 10 offensive boards per contest, but could see those opportunities limited. Texas Southern needs to be ready for a grinding defensive battle and brings plenty to the table on that end of the floor.
The Tigers held opponents to just 40.5 percent shooting on the year and clamped down on Prairie View in the SWAC final, checking the Panthers to only 34 percent shooting and holding their two top scorers to only seven combined points.
This 132.5-point total is the lowest number Texas Southern has faced all season and just the third sub-140 Over/Under for the Tigers on the year. Oddsmakers are giving Mount Saint Mary’s the nod when it comes to setting the pace for this First Four showdown, which means scoring will be low and slow.
PREDICTION: Under 132.5 (-110)
First half prop
Big-game nerves and potential letdowns after respective upset tournament titles could make for some rough shooting when the Mountaineers and Tigers take the floor Thursday night.
Texas Southern is very much a second-half team, leaning on its pace to wear down opposing defenses in the final 20 minutes. The Tigers averaged just 34.7 points in the first half during its run to the SWAC crown before erupting for 42.3 average points in the second half of those three postseason games.
Mount Saint Mary’s methodical pace picks up less than 31 points in the opening 20 minutes of games while limiting foes to 29.8 points against in those first halves.
PREDICTION: First half Under 62.5 (-110)
Mount St Mary’s vs Texas Southern betting card
- Mount Saint Mary’s +2 (-110)
- Under 132.5 (-110)
- First half Under 62.5 (-110)
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Where can I bet on March Madness odds?
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