The Appalachian State Mountaineers and Norfolk State Spartans will face off in the First Four on Thursday to determine who will move on to the first round of the NCAA Tournament and get wrecked by Gonzaga.
College basketball betting lines opened with the Mountaineers, the Sun Belt champs, installed as 3-point favorites against a Spartans team that's coming off its second MEAC title victory.
Here are our best free March Madness picks and predictions for Appalachian State vs. Norfolk State on Thursday, March 18, with tipoff at 8:40 p.m. ET.
Norfolk State vs Appalachian State odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonDraftKings moved Appalachian State from -1.5 to -3 within a couple of hours Sunday night and went on to -3.5 a few times. As of 5:45 p.m. ET on game day, the line is App State -3.5, with the Mountaineers taking 72 percent of bets and 71 percent of money on the spread. By Tuesday, the total dipped from 135.5 to 133.5, where the number remains, although the Over is taking 64 percent of bets/73 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Norfolk State Spartans vs Appalachian State Mountaineers betting preview
Injuries
Norfolk State: None.
Appalachian State: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Spartans are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for Norfolk State vs. Appalachian State.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Your first thought when you see the March Madness odds for this matchup might be that neither Appalachia nor Norfolk are actually states. Your second might be that you actually haven't seen either of these squads play this year ahead of the NCAA Tournament. So let's get down to the nitty-gritty and find an edge between these small school champions.
Both teams are fairly similar when it comes to offensive and defensive efficiency but the Spartans have the edge in two categories. They rank 34th in the country by connecting on 37.3 percent of their 3-point attempts and they have a solid rebounding rate of 50.3, while the Mountaineers collect just 47.8 percent of their available rebounds.
It's also worth noting that the Mountaineers got hot at the right time during the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. Before that, they closed out their regular season by going just 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games. The Spartans, on the other hand, have been a bit more consistent, going 8-1 SU and 7-1 ATS in their previous nine contests.
With Appalachian State 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a favorite, and Norfolk State going 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600, we're grabbing the small dogs with the points.
PREDICTION: Norfolk State +3 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Neither of these schools shoots the ball well with the Spartans ranking 207th in the country with a field goal percentage of 43.5, and the Mountaineers ranking 270th with an FG percentage of 42.1.
They are both better on the defensive end of the floor. The Spartans limit foes to a shooting percentage of 40.9, while the Mountaineers allow just 64.1 points per game.
Appalachian State also plays at one of the slowest paces in the country, ranking 310th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. With the Spartans hitting the Under in five of their last six games, take the Under again.
PREDICTION: Under 135.5 (-110)
Team Total Pick
The Mountaineers may have caught fire during their conference tourney but they've still been struggling to put the ball in the hoop. The Over/Under on their team total for Thursday has been set at 68.5, a number they have gone Over in only four of their last 11 contests. In two of those games, they scored just 65 points in regulation before padding their scoring total in overtime.
Now they face a Norfolk State team that has allowed just 56.8 ppg in its last four contests. Take the Under on the Mountaineers team total.
PREDICTION: Team Total Appalachian State Under 68.5 (-110)
Norfolk State vs Appalachian State betting card
- Norfolk State +3 (-110)
- Team Total Appalachian State Under 68.5 (-110)
- Under 135.5 (-110)
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