While it may feel a little early for conference play, it's the reality of realignment, and we have a good one when Michigan faces off with Iowa this afternoon.
These teams have started strong, both 7-1. While the public perception of the Hawkeyes is being boosted by their opening-night win over Kansas State, Michigan should be better positioned, entering this matchup following three Power Four victories.
Read on for my Iowa vs Michigan predictions below.
Iowa vs Michigan prediction
My best bet
Michigan -9.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
While both of these teams should succeed in transition, the real advantage for one comes in the halfcourt, and that's where I suspect the Michigan Wolverines will make their hay.
The Iowa Hawkeyes feel fraudulent. The 7-1 record is nice, but it's not impressive once you break it down. College basketball odds tend to agree, still pricing the Hawkeyes at plus money to make the tournament — something that seems odd for a one-loss Big Ten team.
To open its season, they beat a Kansas State team with no existent cohesiveness, and this has been one of the biggest disappointments of the young season. It got a 1-point win against Northwestern heading into this one, but it was pretty lucky in some ways, and beating the Wildcats at home pales to the task of heading to Michigan for your first true road game of the season.
Back to the half-court stuff, though. First-year head coach Dusty May had to tinker, but he's smoothed things out offensively. The two big lineups with Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin are working. With that lineup's running efficiency, Michigan can expose some of the Iowa defensive issues (ones that are made worse by Seydou Traore appearing to be out).
Iowa has been backdoored to death so far on its schedule, entering this one with one of the highest rates in the country. It's defended them at about an average rate, allowing .88 points per possession, with the national average right around .86.
The caveat to that? Again, the schedule. Strong perimeter cutting and backdoor actions are a hallmark of the Michigan offense. They've run those sets at a high clip so far this season. This, along with a few others, is where Michigan has a decisive advantage in the halfcourt.
Iowa can't defend well enough to hang around in a road environment that could swallow you up in a flash.
Iowa vs Michigan same-game parlay
Michigan -9.5
Over 158.5
I found it strange we weren't getting this price as a correlation for something I see as reasonably correlated. Nonetheless, we'll take it.
I've talked about the multiple Michigan advantages, but Iowa should be able to find scoring in transition to do its part. Michigan has allowed an above-average scoring rate in transition this season, and Iowa will be interested in pushing the pace here, given this Michigan defense presents some issues in the halfcourt.
I don't think Michigan will have any objections, though, because its played at one of the Big Ten's fastest paces.
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Iowa vs Michigan odds
Iowa vs Michigan live odds
Iowa vs Michigan opening odds
- Spread: Iowa +9 | Michigan -9
- Moneyline: Iowa +375 | Michigan -500
- Over/Under: Over 158 | Under 158
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Iowa vs Michigan betting trend to know
Iowa has cashed the Over in 22 of its last 34 games (+8.75 units / 23% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa vs. Michigan.
How to watch Iowa vs Michigan
| Location: | Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-7-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Iowa vs Michigan key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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