Duke vs Michigan State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Put Up Your Dukes, Spartans

It’s time for the Champions Classic where the No. 9 Duke Blue Devils take on the No. 18 Michigan State Spartans in a marquee matchup between two blue bloods. 

This was thought to be a matchup between two Top-5 teams and while that’s no longer the case, fans are still treated to a juicy matchup of two quality programs. Both squads are hungry to bounce back after early season losses — Sparty ignominiously fell to James Madison, while the Dukies came up short against Arizona. 

Glancing at college basketball odds, Duke is a -4 favorite while the total is set at 141.5.

I have my eyes set on the spread as there’s a lot of variance in these early-season matchups and I believe there’s been an overreaction on one side. 

Check out our college basketball picks for Duke vs. Michigan State on Tuesday, November 14 to find out. 

Duke vs Michigan State best odds

Duke vs Michigan State picks and predictions

The Duke Blue Devils project to be one of the nation’s top teams this year after finishing with 27 wins and a 14-6 ACC record in Year One under Jon Scheyer. He brought back a wealth of experience from that squad as the top four scorers all return and the roster around them is fortified with a recruiting class that includes four Top-25 freshman signees. 

Those returning are headlined by big man Kyle Filipowski (15.1 PPG, 9 RPG last year) and Jeremy Roach (13.6 PPG, 3.1 APG). Both are off to a hot start this season as Filipowski is averaging 25 points while Roach checks in with 15.5. No other Duke player is averaging double figures to start the year and standout guard Tyrese Proctor (9.4 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.3 APG last year) has shot just 40% from the floor while averaging 8.0 PPG.

The Blue Devils handled Dartmouth 92-54 in the opener before falling 78-73 at home against Arizona. 

The Michigan State Spartans also entered the year with high expectations after winning two NCAA Tournament games a year ago and giving Kansas State a run for its money in the Sweet 16. Five of the top six scorers, and eight of 10 rotation players, return, headlined by standout guards Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard. Walker is the team’s leading scorer (24.5 PPG) as the only player averaging double figures but is at less than 100% as he deals with shin splints. 

The Spartans fell 79-76 in overtime at home against James Madison in a shocker to begin the year but bounced back with a 74-51 thumping of Southern Indiana. 

The offense has struggled to get going as the loss of perimeter Joey Hauser has been evident — Sparty is just 2-for-31 on three-point attempts so far this season. That’s dropped them to 51st in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency rankings and down to 30th overall. 

Last year the Spartans ranked third nationally in 3P%, canning 39.3% of their tiples. They currently rank dead last (6.5%) this season, which is simply too far of a drop-off to continue since most of the roster from a year ago is back. That number should stabilize the more games they play, and I think it creates a bit of value in the short term as this team’s metrics have dipped so far after just two games. 

The Spartans are the kind of team I prefer to play as an underdog — they’re well-rounded and are a veteran team, so they tend to play well when they’re discounted.

They haven’t looked great this year, sure, but neither have the Blue Devils. The loss to Arizona is one thing — that’s a good team! — but they looked a step slow and a bit soft in dealing with the Wildcats’ athleticism and physicality, and that’s a problem that could show up again on Tuesday night. 

Both teams have some issues to fix early on in the year, so I’d consider both to be high-variance teams this early in the season. Both are veteran units and had comparable expectations heading into the year, and I’d rather take the points with the underdog in what should be a hard-fought battle between two teams looking to avoid falling out of the Top 25. 

My best bet: Michigan State +4 (-110 at DraftKings)

Duke vs Michigan State same-game parlay

Michigan State +4

Over 142

Tyrese Proctor Over 5.5 points

25% boost available

+460 +575 at DraftKings

The first leg I’ll add to my best bet for this same-game parlay is Over 142 on the game total. Both teams have too much offensive firepower for me to expect too much of a slogfest, and I expect the shooting variance to level out for the Spartans.

Duke looked a step slow against Arizona, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the case again here against Walker, Hoggard, and the rest of this talented Spartans team.

The final leg will be a play on Duke guard Tyrese Proctor to exceed his points prop of 5.5. Duke is going to need to score for this Over to hit, and Proctor is playing over 30 minutes a night in a Top-15 offense.

He averaged 9.4 points as a freshman a year ago and is expected to improve those numbers this year, so this prop is simply too low for my liking as he’ll be leaned upon to create buckets if this is the tight, back-and-forth game I’m anticipating. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Duke vs Michigan State spread and Over/Under analysis

There’s been some Duke love in the market as the Blue Devils have moved from -2.5 at open to -4 on Tuesday morning. The total has been on a downward trend, opening at 144.5 on Monday before dropping to 141.5 as of the time of this writing. 

This is a streaky Spartans team — they were bad at the beginning of last year, went on both hot and cold runs in Big Ten play, and then got hot in the tournament. Right now, this team isn’t clicking — only one player (Walker) is in good form, and no one has stepped up as an outside shooter to replace Hauser. 

Coach Tom Izzo has struggled against Duke in his career, winning just three of his previous 16 matchups with the school. The Dukies also hold the analytics advantage (12th overall in KenPom compared to 30th for Michigan State), so it’s easy to see why money has come in on the Blue Devils. 

I’m still on the opposite side, however, as I’d prefer to have the underdog in a tight game between two talented, veteran teams on a neutral court. Both teams have already lost once this season and I’m not going to overreact to a small sample size. If the Spartans come out and look dreadful again on Tuesday then I’ll question if they’ve appropriately replaced Hauser, but they are still enough capable shooters on the roster that I’m chalking things up to variance. 

Michigan State has tended to get into high-scoring games in recent Champions Classics, combining with its opponents to exceed 141.5 total points in each of the last three years while averaging 156 PPG. I’d be inclined to take the Over as both teams have played at the United Center for the Champions Classic before and have tended to get into higher-scoring games at this location. 

Duke vs Michigan State betting trend to know

Michigan State is 6-0 ATS in its last six Tuesday games while Duke is 1-5 ATS in its last six Tuesday games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Michigan State.

Duke vs Michigan State game info

Duke vs Michigan State key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic