Friday's college hoops card is loaded with intriguing non-conference matchups, from Arizona vs. Auburn to Ohio State vs. UConn.
My college basketball against the spread picks for Nov. 13 target seven games where the numbers look vulnerable, plus a three-leg combo with serious payout potential.
For more angles across Friday's slate, check out the latest college basketball picks.
College basketball against the spread picks: Nov. 13
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Butler |
-3.5 49% |
 Georgia North Carolina |
+4.5 53% |
 Ohio State UConn |
-11.5 52% |
 Virginia Maryland |
-5.5 53% |
 Mississippi State Xavier |
-3.5 53% |
 Arizona Auburn |
-2.5 50% |
 Seton Hall Alabama |
+17.5 50% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert college basketball ATS picks: Nov. 13
Pittsburgh vs Butler (-3.5): Butler -3.5
I'm siding with the market over KenPom's model, which has the Panthers winning by one point. Since the beginning of last season, the Bulldogs are 16-6 against the spread (ATS) in non-conference games, with a +5.5-point spread differential. Pitt ranks 337th in returning minutes, per FanBoardHQ.com.
Georgia vs North Carolina (-4.5): Georgia +4.5
This is the first season of the Michael Malone era in Chapel Hill, while Georgia head coach Mike White has quietly built a solid program in Athens. More importantly, the Bulldogs should win the "battle for possessions," since they have better turnover and rebounding rates on both ends of the floor, per KenPom.
Ohio State vs UConn (-11.5): UConn -11.5
Death, taxes, and Huskies head coach Dan Hurley smoking non-conference teams are the only sure things in this world. Connecticut is 71-63-3 ATS in non-conference games since the 2019-20 season and has a +16.8 average margin of victory in those contests.
Virginia vs Maryland (+5.5): Virginia -5.5
Maryland has looked out of sorts to start this season, whereas the Cavaliers have already played four games and have won all of them by 19+ points. The Terrapins rank 358th nationally in assist rate and 345th in defensive effective field goal percentage, which blends 2- and 3-point shooting, according to Bart Torvik.
Mississippi State vs Xavier (-3.5): Xavier -3.5
Give me Xavier's size and shot profile in this matchup. Per Bart Torvik, the Musketeers rank sixth nationally in average height, while attempting more "Close 2-pointers" and fewer "Far 2-pointers," one of the least efficient shot types in basketball.
Arizona vs Auburn (+2.5): Arizona -2.5
I'm just kind of out on Auburn's program since Steven Pearl — Bruce Pearl's son and a nepo baby — took over as head coach last year. The Tigers failed to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2021 last season, and the Wildcats crushed Auburn by 29 points in Tucson last December.
Seton Hall vs Alabama (-17.5): Seton Hall +17.5
The Pirates have enough defensive quality and experience to keep this within the number. According to Bart Torvik, Seton Hall ranks 25th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 19th in experience, whereas 'Bama ranks 319th in experience.
Today's college basketball ATS combo
Georgia +4.5
Xavier -3.5
Arizona -2.5
The biggest danger in early-season college hoops is treating every recognizable program like a finished product. North Carolina is still learning how to operate under a new coach, and Georgia has the discipline to make life uncomfortable for the Tar Heels.
Xavier presents a different problem for Mississippi State, with the kind of interior presence that can disrupt defensive assignments and force adjustments. And Auburn's home court isn't an automatic equalizer against an Arizona team with legitimate national championship ambitions.
I like backing teams with a clearer path to controlling their matchups rather than paying a premium for reputation, atmosphere, or preseason expectations. There's enough uncertainty in November without manufacturing more of it.
Prices and probabilities are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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