An improved USC (77%) squad tests its mettle on the road against California tonight.
My USC vs. California prediction is buying the hype on Eric Musselman's squad, which is much better than last year's injury-riddled roster.
Read on for my full college basketball picks for USC vs. California on Wednesday, Nov. 11, broadcast on ESPN2 at 11 pm ET.
TOP PICK
Who will win USC vs California: USC -8.5
USC is a vastly more talented team, so I'm on the Trojans at -9.5 or better.
This line is staying within a reasonable number as it's a difficult travel spot for USC after the Lake Tahoe Classic on Sunday, but I'm not too concerned.
It's in the same state and time zone, so I'm betting on a strong performance from a vastly improved squad under coach Eric Musselman, who typically rolls early in the season.
The offense is firing on all cylinders, averaging 94 ppg. With two go-to guards in Alijah Arenas (25.5 ppg) and Rodney Rice (23.5 ppg), two four-star freshmen (twins Adonis and Darius Ratliff) solidifying the front court, and veteran KJ Lewis (+5.899 BPR) proving an invaluable bench piece, USC means business this season.
California's only returning starter, center Lee Dort, has yet to see the court. A lack of continuity will hurt Mark Madsen's squad early in the season.
COVERS INTEL: USC gets to the line at the fifth-highest rate and cashes in on 81.8% of them. It also gets to the rim and frequently converts those looks (40th in Haslametrics' near-proximity attempt rate and near-proximity field goal percentage), meaning they run a high-efficiency offense specializing in easy looks. 
USC vs California Over/Under pick: Under 161.5
This total is juiced up pretty high given both squads' respective offensive outbursts to begin the season. USC and Cal are combining for 183 ppg offensively, but keep in mind those gaudy numbers are mostly coming against down opponents.
With a tricky situational spot following the Lake Tahoe Classic, expect a slight dip in efficiency for both squads.
USC has the tools to be a solid defense with great length (the shortest starter is 6-foot-5, and two are 6-foot-11 or taller) and a stopper in Lewis (+2.73 BPR).
Cal doesn't have many proven bucket getters (93rd in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency), leaving its game-to-game output in doubt.
USC vs California combo
This is a "come down" spot following the Lake Tahoe trip for both teams. USC is too strong offensively to stay down for long, but expect a low-scoring first half relative to outsized expectations.
The Trojans are vastly improved on both sides of the ball, and the market only seems to be giving credence to the offensive side.
USC vs California combo
- First half Under 76.5
- California team total Under 76.5
- USC -8.5
- Top picks: 1-1 +0 units
- Combos: 0-2 -2 units
USC vs California odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: USC -8.5 | California +8.5
- Over/Under: Over 161.5 | Under 161.5
- Moneyline: USC 77% | California 24%
Check out the latest college basketball odds before tonight's USC vs. California matchup.
USC vs California trend
USC is 5-0 in its last five games as a road favorite. Find more college basketball betting trends.
How to watch USC vs California
| Location | Haas Pavillion, Berkeley, CA |
| Date | Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2026 |
| Tip off | 11 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
USC vs California latest injuries
Check out our college basketball injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
