The San Antonio Spurs are off to a disappointing start to the 2026-27 campaign, but they’re in a get-right spot tonight on the road against a shorthanded Dallas Mavericks team.
With Cooper Flagg expected to sit out tonight, my Spurs vs. Mavericks predictions and NBA picks point to a big San Antonio win.
I’m backing the Spurs to cover a big road spread as they get their first win of the season, led by De’Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, and Victor Wembanyama. I’m also backing Naji Marshall to pick up the slack for Dallas in scoring.
TOP PICK
Spurs vs Mavericks prediction: Spurs -12.5
San Antonio will be hungry for a win, and I’ll trade this line up to 13.5.
Just like the New York Knicks, the Spurs are 0-2. This isn’t a Finals hangover, however, as the pair have faced elite competition through their first two games.
The Spurs get a chance to bounce back against a lesser opponent, and despite their losing record, I’m backing them to cover a big road spread.
Cooper Flagg injured his shoulder late in the second quarter of Friday’s win, and after the Mavericks scored 77 in the first half, they managed only 44 in the second half with Flagg sidelined.
I expect Kyrie Irving, already on a minutes restriction, to have a limited workload on the second night of a back-to-back. With Flagg, the team’s offensive engine, presumably out and Irving limited, the Spurs should win comfortably.
COVERS INTEL: The Spurs averaged 134.3 points against the Mavericks - their highest average against any opponent. San Antonio can replicate this offensive production through Victor Wembanyama, who can exploit Dallas’ depleted frontcourt, which will be without Dereck Lively II and Santi Aldama. 
Spurs vs Mavericks combo
The Spurs opened the season with a three-guard lineup, featuring Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle sharing the court with De'Aaron Fox. Harper’s and Castle’s ascendance as scorers has caused Fox to focus on facilitation rather than scoring.
His 10 FGA mark a career low, while his eight assists mark a career high. Fox has dished 6+ in each of the first two games of the season, and he did so in 40 of 72 games in 2025-26.
Victor Wembanyama has corralled 13 rebounds in each of the first two games of the season, and he’ll face little competition for boards against the Mavericks tonight.
Daniel Gafford will likely play only 20-22 minutes, and the Mavericks’ already-depleted frontcourt will miss key rebounder and defender Flagg.
Spurs vs Mavericks combo
- Spurs -12.5
- De’Aaron Fox Over 5.5 assists
- Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 rebounds
Spurs vs Mavericks player props
Spurs player prop: Dylan Harper Over 19.5 points
After a tremendous showing in the NBA Finals, second-year man Dylan Harper showed he was ready to take the next step in 2026-27, and the Spurs have matched that confidence.
Harper's playing time has jumped from 22.6 minutes per game last season to 34.0 through two games, and his field-goal attempts have risen from 9.5 to 16.0 per game.
Harper has scored 20+ in one of two games this season, and he gets a strong matchup with a shorthanded Mavs squad.
I price this scoring line closer to 50%, making it a profitable trade at 37%.
Mavericks player prop: Naji Marshall Over 14.5 points
Naji Marshall averaged a career-best 15.2 ppg last season and took on a featured role in Dallas’ offense. He’s played a similar role to open the 2026-27 campaign, scoring 15+ in each of the first two games.
With Cooper Flagg likely sidelined, Marshall’s scoring could get a boost. He averaged 19.1 ppg across 10 games with Flagg out last season, scoring 15+ in nine of them.
Marshall ranks third in minutes (31) and leads the team in FGA at 14. I’ll trade this line up to 19.5, as he’s thrust into an even bigger offensive role without Flagg.
Spurs vs Mavericks Market Trends
Here is how trusted traders at Polymarket are dealing on today’s matchup. Use the widget below to follow the smart money and inform your Spurs vs. Mavericks prediction.
- Top picks: 0-2, -2.0 units
- Combos: 0-2, -2.0 units
Spurs vs Mavericks odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Spurs -12.5 (51%) | Mavericks +12.5 (50%)
- Over/Under: Over 230.5 (50%) | Under 230.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Spurs 84% | Mavericks 16%
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Spurs vs Mavericks trend
San Antonio dominated Dallas last season, covered the spread in all four matchups, and won by an average of 19.3 points. Find more NBA betting trends.
How to watch Spurs vs Mavericks
| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026 |
| Tip off | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | KFAA-TV, Mavs.TV |
Spurs vs Mavericks latest injuries
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