Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets head to Atlanta on Saturday to face Jalen Johnson and the Hawks.
Despite playing the second night of a back-to-back, I'm backing Durant and company as my favorite play among Saturday's NBA moneyline picks.
I'm also bullish on Philadelphia prevailing over Milwaukee. Here are my latest NBA picks for Oct. 24.
NBA moneyline picks: Oct. 24
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Heat Hornets |
53% |
 Bucks 76ers |
83% |
 Nets Cavaliers |
82% |
 Spurs Mavericks |
78% |
 Wizards Bulls |
54% |
 Rockets Hawks |
55% |
 Pelicans Nuggets |
83% |
 Warriors Suns |
64% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
Trade on the NBA at Polymarket!
Sign up now using our exclusive Polymarket promo code 'COVERS' (on your mobile app only) and get a $25 trading bonus after you deposit $10 to trade on any event contracts!
*Eligible locations only
Expert NBA moneyline picks: Oct. 24
Heat vs Hornets: Heat
With Kon Knueppel and Coby White out, every Charlotte Hornets matchup seems to revolve around Brandon Miller, who is currently the focal point of their offense.
Andrew Wiggins is a tough primary defender for Miller, especially with Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo providing help defense and rim protection. That combination could create significant problems for the Hornets offensively.
On the other end, I'm equally concerned about Naz Reid and Moussa Diabate trying to contain the offensive actions of Antetokounmpo and Adebayo.
I like the Miami Heat here, pricing them closer to 61% compared to a market probability of 53%.
Bucks vs 76ers: 76ers
Even with Joel Embiid listed as questionable and the possibility of his absence factored into my projection, I still see value on the Philadelphia 76ers, who are trading as 83% favorites against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Tyrese Maxey and Jaylen Brown should be able to consistently pressure Myles Turner's drop coverage, while the veteran depth of Anfernee Simons and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope could prove valuable as the game progresses.
I expect Philadelphia to maintain its advantage by exploiting Milwaukee's youthful bench unit.
Nets vs Cavaliers: Cavaliers
What an embarrassing start to the season for the Cleveland Cavaliers. I could see them getting caught looking if they were coming off a big road win against the Philadelphia 76ers, but that's no longer the case, especially with their home opener on the schedule.
This is a matchup where Donovan Mitchell and James Harden need to take complete control of the offense and remind Egor Demin and Nolan Traore that they still have plenty to learn in this league.
The Cavaliers are massive 82% favorites against the Brooklyn Nets, but I actually price them closer to 86%, giving us an edge even at this high probability.
Spurs vs Mavericks: Spurs
Both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back, which makes me question how many minutes Kyrie Irving will see this early in the season.
These are my favorite types of trades: situations where you have an edge even if a key opposing player suits up, but that edge could grow even further if he's load-managed or sees reduced minutes.
I don't expect Irving to sit outright, especially with the Dallas Mavericks playing their home opener, but I wouldn't be surprised to see his minutes limited. The same goes for Cooper Flagg this early in the season, particularly on the second night of a back-to-back.
Dallas knows where it stands in the Western Conference playoff picture, Flagg is a talented young player worth protecting, and Irving could be a trade asset if he stays healthy.
I have the San Antonio Spurs projected at 83%, even with Irving playing 28 minutes.
Wizards vs Bulls: Wizards
I don't see how Jalen Smith, playing at center, stands a chance against a frontcourt featuring Anthony Davis, Deandre Ayton, and Alex Sarr.
It's the second night of a back-to-back for the Washington Wizards, so there's a chance Davis' status could change this early in the season. However, he said in the offseason that he plans to play all 82 games. I'm also less concerned about potential minute restrictions or a change in his status because of Washington's frontcourt depth.
Even if Davis were ruled out, I fully expect Sarr and Ayton to have big games, with Trae Young consistently setting them up around the rim through two-man actions. This is a matchup where I don't see the Chicago Bulls having the personnel to consistently defend those actions.
Rockets vs Hawks: Rockets
It's the second night of a back-to-back for the Houston Rockets, so I've removed Fred VanVleet from the projection and slotted Marcus Smart in at point guard, as we know VanVleet isn't playing back-to-backs to start the season.
Even with that adjustment and the back-to-back factored in, I still see a solid edge on Houston. The Rockets are one of my favorite trades on the board, as I price them closer to 64% favorites against the Atlanta Hawks, well above the market's 55%.
Atlanta deploys a guard-heavy lineup that I believe is too small to match up with Houston, which starts three players standing 6-foot-11. Alperen Sengun should have opportunities to exploit the Hawks' frontcourt in the paint, while Kevin Durant can take advantage of smaller defenders by shooting over the top of them.
Pelicans vs Nuggets: Nuggets
Yves Missi and Derik Queen are the only players standing between Nikola Jokic and a triple-double on Saturday night. Let me repeat that: Missi and Queen.
This is the second night of a back-to-back for the New Orleans Pelicans, who will be dealing with the challenges of playing at altitude in both games after facing the Utah Jazz in Salt Lake City on Friday.
We're trading on another high-probability outcome, but one that I believe should be priced even higher. My projection is relatively close to the market, with the Denver Nuggets coming in at 86%, but there's still value on the home team at the current price.
Warriors vs Suns: Suns
It's the second night of a back-to-back for the Golden State Warriors, who are already facing depth concerns without Kristaps Porzingis and Jimmy Butler.
Steve Kerr has said the team plans to manage Stephen Curry's minutes early in the season, which raises the possibility of a reduced workload against the Phoenix Suns.
This is similar to the Spurs trade, where we looked to fade Irving in a tough schedule spot.
We have an edge on the Suns assuming Curry and Draymond Green play 33 and 28 minutes, respectively, but I'm not convinced those projections will hold on the second night of a back-to-back.
That's why I'm backing Phoenix at 64%, as the Suns still offer value even if Curry plays more than 30 minutes.
Today's NBA moneyline combo
Rockets Nuggets Heat
Our card is loaded with chalk for Saturday’s slate, but that’s simply how the projections broke down against the market probabilities.
I’m rolling with the Heat and Rockets in the combo, not necessarily because they’re two of the lower-probability plays that would improve our payout, but because they offer two of the strongest probability gaps we’re seeing in the market.
Several teams on my card are trading above 80%, but the Nuggets stand out as my favorite from that group. Denver has the home-court advantage, while the Pelicans face the challenge of playing their second game in as many nights at altitude this early in the season.
Those factors make the Nuggets the safest play among Saturday’s high-probability favorites.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
