Pelicans vs Pacers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Williamson Won't Be Contained

The New Orleans Pelicans and Indiana Pacers play the first of a two-game set on Wednesday, February 28. The Pelicans are fresh off dispatching the New York Knicks in Madison Square Garden last night, as they eventually overwhelmed the shorthanded Knicks with size and skill.

The Pacers are a team that has struggled with size in the past, but they come in as heavy favorites per the NBA odds. Indiana is looking to bounce back from a disappointing outing against the Toronto Raptors on Monday, a game in which Tyrese Haliburton looked nothing like his superstar self.

My NBA picks and predictions for Pelicans vs. Pacers expect Zion Williamson to slice through the soft Indiana defense at will.

Pelicans vs Pacers odds

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Pelicans vs Pacers predictions

The Indiana Pacers defense is a mess. Their defensive rating is fourth-worst in the NBA, and the three teams worse than the Pacers have as many wins collectively as Indiana has in total. If they want to be a serious team, they will have to improve. 

Adding Pascal Siakam, who is an excellent defender in his own right, was not a cure-all.

The Pacers occasionally raise their level, like in their recent game against the Dallas Mavericks, but all too often they fall well short of their potential.

Myles Turner was once a regular legitimate candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, but he has clearly lost a step. While once he could contain two in a pick and roll with time to spare to explode for a block if needed, he’s now more limited. 

He can make the big defensive play if he’s in the right place at the right time, but his ability to recover and make help side plays seems lessened. Opposing teams generate more shots at the rim against Indiana than against any other team.

Not that this is all or even mostly his fault.  Even great defenders would struggle to make an impact with the amount of perimeter penetration the Pacers routinely allow. But he’s also not good enough to shift the balance on his own. It makes Indiana incredibly vulnerable to players who live to attack the basket.

RJ Barrett just demonstrated what a willingness and a desire to attack the rim consistently can yield against Indiana on Monday. He got wherever he wanted. The Pacers often let him get to his strong hand, get to the middle of the floor, and failed to provide any backside help when he beat his first defender. He had 24 points on 11-for-16 shooting from the field.

The same blueprint applies to Zion Williamson tonight, except Zion is one of the most explosive athletes at his size and an all-world level finisher, which RJ — for all his merits — is patently not. 

While Barrett has to generate a lot of his looks in transition to attack a bent defense, Zion can generate quality shots attacking from a standstill in the halfcourt. 

The Pacers Aaron Nesmith would theoretically be their best defensive option against Williamson, but he has missed three straight games with an ankle injury and is officially questionable Wednesday. Even if he plays it’s fair to wonder how much success he’ll have guarding Zion having not played in two going on three weeks.

Zion’s points prop has also floated at 25.5 in three of his last five games. The Pacers, if anything, should be a matchup he has a significant advantage in.

To me, these Zion Williamson odds are overrating the impact of this being a back-to-back for New Orleans when they didn’t exactly have to wear themselves out to take down the shorthanded New York Knicks last night. 

My best bet: Zion Williamson Over 23.5 points (-145 at bet365)

Pelicans vs Pacers same-game parlay

Zion Williamson Over 24.5 points

Tyrese Haliburton Under 18.5 points

Tyrese Haliburton Under 11.5 assists

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Tyrese Haliburton doesn’t look right. Hali had nine points on 2 of 11 shooting on Monday against the Raptors in one of his worst games as a Pacer. It would be easy to assign blame to it being a back-to-back for Indiana, but it did not appear to be fatigue-related.

He wasn’t beating opponents off the dribble to score and he was giving up the ball even when the greatest advantage available on a play was his own. 

In the past, this was symptomatic of his playstyle preferences, where he would rather pass than score. But this regression as a scorer feels different.

It seems like Tyrese is struggling to trust his body the same way following his hamstring issue.

This is not uncommon in players who suffer significant injuries. No doubt it is magnified by the fact that he rushed back and so quickly reaggravated his hamstring issue. That erodes what little trust in his body he developed during his original rehab.

With Tyrese looking out of sorts, I like Unders on his points and assists props to round out my same-game parlay. It helps that the New Orleans Pelicans can throw so much length at him including outstanding defenders like Herb Jones.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Pelicans vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis

The Pacers opened as -4.5 point favorites against New Orleans, which has since risen to as high as -6.5 at some sportsbooks.

Neither team has been inspiring against the spread lately, with Indiana just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 and the Pelicans only 5-5. 

While Indiana has a rest advantage on Wednesday, it shouldn’t prove decisive. The Pels have covered in more than half of their games played on the second night of a back-to-back. They are also 10-4-1 ATS as road underdogs this season.

The Pacers have done well to cover 55.2% of their home games this season but have struggled with prosperity. When they’re favored at home, they cover just 44.4% of the time.

Wednesday’s total has come in between 238.5 and 239.5.

The Pacers have played consistently high-scoring games this season, but particularly at home. Oddsmakers have frequently underestimated Indiana’s offensive firepower (and defensive futility), which has seen Overs cash in 20 of their 31 home games this season.

The Pacers own the second-best offense in the NBA, but they’ve slipped a little with Tyrese underperforming for a couple of games now. As I’m of the mind that the Pelicans can slow him down in this one, I can see the argument for the Under. 

Pelicans vs Pacers betting trend to know

The Pelicans are 10-4-1 ATS as road underdogs this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Pacers.

Pelicans vs Pacers game info

Pelicans vs Pacers latest injuries

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