Sunday's four-game NBA slate tips off with the Celtics vs. Magic at 3:30 p.m. ET and wraps up with the Raptors vs. Lakers at 9 p.m. ET.
Our NBA moneyline picks cover every game in tipoff order and are priced with Polymarket probabilities. The Los Angeles Lakers (68%) are the heaviest favorites on the board, while the Los Angeles Clippers (24%) are our longest shot.
Find more analysis on our NBA picks and NBA player prop projections pages.
NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 1
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Magic
Nets
Warriors
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Expert NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 1
Celtics vs Magic: 
Celtics
Give me the Boston Celtics at 66% all day, as I price them closer to a 72% moneyline favorite against the Orlando Magic.
The absences of Jalen Suggs and Paolo Banchero will be particularly costly for Orlando in this matchup.
While Suggs would be a helpful switchable defender against Jayson Tatum, his absence also removes a defender who could help slow down Payton Pritchard at the point of attack.
Given how well Pritchard has been playing lately, limiting his impact is key to slowing down this Celtics offense, making Suggs' absence even more significant.
Nets vs Pacers: 
Pacers
Even with Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell out and Ivica Zubac listed as doubtful, I still see value on the Indiana Pacers at 60% against the Brooklyn Nets.
Andrew Nembhard and Pascal Siakam have the individual matchup advantages to lead Indiana to victory, particularly in the pace-and-space offense the Pacers love to play.
Brooklyn's backcourt is incredibly young, with Nolan Traore and Mikel Brown Jr., giving Nembhard and Siakam opportunities to relentlessly hunt those matchups through two-man actions.
That should force the Nets' defense into rotation, creating scoring opportunities for themselves while opening up quality looks for Indiana's shooters.
Clippers vs Warriors: 
Clippers
Give me the Los Angeles Clippers at 24%, as I price them closer to a 29% underdog against the Golden State Warriors.
With Kris Dunn serving as the primary defender and Derrick Jones Jr. providing help defense, I think the Clippers have the personnel to blitz Stephen Curry and disrupt the actions the Warriors run through their superstar guard.
On the other end, Golden State's lack of shot-blocking and rim protection opens the door for Darius Garland to generate quality looks at the basket and create more scoring opportunities for his teammates.
That's particularly important for a Clippers offense that relies heavily on Garland's ability to create for everyone around him.
The Clippers might be a massive underdog, trading at just 24%, but they're my favorite trade on Sunday's board at this price.
Raptors vs Lakers: 
Lakers
I'll be honest, I was surprised to see the edge lying with the Los Angeles Lakers in this spot, with Los Angeles trading as a 68% favorite against the Toronto Raptors.
Everything comes down to projections and probabilities, and I follow the math. Still, you get that initial gut reaction when you see a number before running the projections.
My first thought was 68% looked a little high, but the projections actually came back even higher, putting the Lakers closer to a 70% favorite.
One of the biggest factors in the projections was Jakob Poeltl and Toronto's lack of size and depth at the center position when defending a high pick-and-roll involving Luka Doncic and Walker Kessler.
Doncic and Kessler bring a ton of size and downhill pressure, attacking the rim and putting significant pressure on undersized options like Collin Murray-Boyles and Trayce Jackson-Davis when they're forced into reserve minutes.
And here's the bigger issue: We're already questioning Toronto's ability to defend those actions when Poeltl isn't on the floor, but the Raptors don't exactly have an answer for that combination even with their starting center on the court.
Today's NBA moneyline combo
I'm speaking directly to the Clippers in this combo breakdown: please don't let me down again.
We've backed the Clippers a couple of times recently, and they haven't exactly rewarded us with a green checkmark. Even the Milwaukee Bucks have managed to come through for us!
I'm looking for Darius Garland to do what he does best and create opportunities for everyone around him, along with a legacy game from Rui Hachimura. I need him to channel that inner FIBA spirit from his days playing for Japan.
The Warriors have won three straight, but plenty of holes remain on this roster. It's time to bring them back down to earth!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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