The Washington Nationals dropped the first two games of this series by multiple runs.
With a hot offense and an advantage on the mound, my Yankees vs. Nationals predictions and MLB picks see the home team flipping the script in the series finale.
Who will win Yankees vs Nationals today: Nationals moneyline (-110)
The surface stats would tell you there isn’t much separating Will Warren and Cade Cavalli. The underlyings tell a much different story — particularly over the last month.
Cavalli has posted a strong 2.49 xFIP and struck out 29.3% of opposing batters. It’s a much different story for Warren, who owns a 4.64 xFIP and 16.0 strikeout rate in that time.
Warren has struggled with power along the way, allowing 2.19 homers per nine innings. The Washington Nationals lead the majors in homers and OPS vs. RHP in July, making them the perfect team to back against him.
Bet this up to -120.
COVERS INTEL: Will Warren owns a 5.04 xFIP on the road, 24th among today's projected starting pitchers.
Yankees vs Nationals Over/Under pick: Over 9 (-115)
This is a matchup where the offenses should be front and center. The Nationals have hit for extreme power lately while also getting on base at a high rate. That should continue against Warren, given he ranks in the 12th percentile in pitcher run value and enters in poor form.
While Cavalli is solid, he's still conceded multiple earned runs in six of his last seven starts. The New York Yankees sit second in homers against righties this month and have the power to pounce on any mistakes.
Play the Over to -130.
- ML/RL bets: 58-45, +3.25 units
- Over/Under bets: 56-43-4, +5.64 units
Yankees vs Nationals weather
Temperatures in the low 80s are expected with winds blowing west. Small bump to the bats.
Yankees vs Nationals odds
- Moneyline: Yankees -110 | Nationals -110
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 (+145) | Nationals +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-115) | Under 9 (-105)
Yankees vs Nationals trend
The Nationals have cashed the Over in 31 of the last 50 home games for +13.50 units and a 24% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Nationals.
How to watch Yankees vs Nationals and game info
| Location | Nationals Park, Washington, D.C. |
| Date | Sunday, July 12, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, Nationals.TV |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (7-4, 4.15 ERA) |
| Nationals starting pitcher | Cade Cavalli (5-4, 3.88 ERA) |
Yankees vs Nationals latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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