Despite the Cubs laying juice at home, backing New York at plus-money offers the top edge on Friday's slate.
Shota Imanaga’s biggest contact vulnerability matches up poorly against the Yankees’ power profile, and with Will Warren introducing plenty of risk for New York, the game total points strongly toward the Over.
Here are my Yankees vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks for July 31.
Who will win Yankees vs Cubs today: Yankees moneyline (+124)
For a second straight start, I find myself in the position of backing New York Yankees arm Will Warren. And, for the second straight start, it's not because of him but his opponent.
This is a decent misprice, and I'd play the Yankees down to +100 for two units.
Chicago Cubs hurler Shota Imanaga’s barrel profile is a real concern against this lineup. He has allowed a 9.4% barrel rate, which sits in the bottom quarter of MLB, while the Bronx Bombers own a 9.6% team barrel rate, the best mark in baseball.
That’s the biggest advantage for either team in this matchup.
COVERS INTEL: Shota Imanaga’s four-seamer is the pitch New York can attack. He throws it 41.1% of the time, and it has allowed a .483 SLG with a 44.3% hard-hit rate.
Yankees vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (+109)
I’m playing the Over because both sides have a scoring path tied to the starters. New York’s case is obvious, and we've already talked about it.
The Cubs can contribute against Will Warren, too. He owns a 4.59 xERA with a 41.0% hard-hit rate. The Cubs aren't a crazy explosive group, but a .340 OBP along with a solid walk rate can create the traffic Warren has struggled to navigate.
I'd play this to -105.
- ML/RL bets: 41-36, +7.10 units
- Over/Under bets: 45-34, +13.01 units
Yankees vs Cubs weather
Yankees vs Cubs odds
- Moneyline: New York +124 | Chicago -136
- Run line: New York +1.5 | Chicago -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Yankees vs Cubs trend
Over is 4-0-1 in Imanagas last 5 interleague starts.
How to watch Yankees vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, Ill. |
| Date | Friday, July 31, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, Marquee |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (7-5, 4.41 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Shota Imanaga (7-8, 3.72 ERA) |
Yankees vs Cubs latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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