The New York Yankees are hot once again, winners of four straight, and will look to make it two in a row over the Houston Astros tonight.
With a pitching matchup that tilts the Bombers' way, it's hard to look past the value on them here.
My Yankees vs Astros MLB predictions and MLB picks are taking a plus-money bet on New York on April 25, 2026.
Who will win Yankees vs Astros today: Yankees -1.5 (+110)
This is a rough spot for Houston Astros pitcher Mike Burrows, as the New York Yankees are built to punish the exact pitching arsenal that he relies on.
New York ranks 11th in baseball in barrels and hard-hit rate, sits well below the league average in chase rate, and generates elite exit velocity when they make contact.
For starters, I don't need to tell you that this Yankees lineup is elite against the fastball, but it's a story here given how much Burrows throws it. Perhaps a bigger story?
Burrows posted a chase rate in the 78th percentile of baseball, and New York had one of the lowest chase rates in the sport. This is a direct strength versus a strength, and I'll take the Yankees' bats in that fight more often than not.
COVERS INTEL: The Yankees have one of the lowest chase rates in the majors at 26%, with the league average nearly 30%. 
Yankees vs Astros Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+115)
The Astros rank 29th in overall Statcast hitting and have below-average hard-hit rates. So far, they've been a contact-first offense that doesn't do a ton of damage even when they put the ball in play.
I'm inclined to buy into that at least to some extent.
Ryan Weathers' breaking ball has given him a strong putaway pitch, and I think it shows up again tonight. His last outing was dynamite, and I think his chase rate and whiff rate, which both rank in the top 70% of baseball, will play well against an offense that has struggled in 2026.
While I expect the Yankees' bats to succeed against Burrows, I also expect they'll cool off to some degree and revert to their 2025 swing-and-miss metrics..
- ML/RL bets: 8-7, +0.59 units
- Over/Under bets: 9-7, + units
Yankees vs Astros odds
- Moneyline: Yankees -131 | Astros +119
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 (+105) | Astros +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (+100)
Yankees vs Astros trend
The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.65 Units / 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Astros.
How to watch Yankees vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Saturday, April 25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, SCHN |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Ryan Weathers (1-2, 3.18 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Mike Burrows (1-3, 6.75 ERA) |
Yankees vs Astros latest injuries
Yankees vs Astros weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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