The Toronto Blue Jays are playing like a team just waiting for an inevitable trade deadline exodus, and that just adds to the case for the Detroit Tigers to complete a weekend sweep this afternoon.
A disastrous sixth inning doomed the Blue Jays yesterday as the Tigers cruised to a 7-3 victory — powered by a Jake Rogers grand slam — for their sixth win in their past seven games.
Toronto, now 44-54, counters today with Kevin Gausman on the mound against Keider Montero, and my MLB picks and Tigers vs. Blue Jays predictions dig into this July 21 matchup.
Tigers vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
First five innings Over 4.5 (-109 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The irony is overwhelming for Toronto Blue Jays fans these days, with the Jays serving up some more exciting, free-scoring games at last yet slipping further and further out of the Wild Card race. This series with the Detroit Tigers has been a perfect example, with the scoreboard ticking Over but Toronto ending up on the wrong end of the results.
The Over is now 9-1 in Toronto’s last 10 contests. While the offense has shown flashes of life while peppering that side of the O/U line, this trend partly stems from the Blue Jays leaking runs. They’ve allowed 5+ runs in six of their last seven games.
I’m zoning in on a first five Innings prop today, factoring in that trend of Overs and some erratic performances from this afternoon’s starters. Gausman has a 5.59 ERA in his last five starts, despite racking up 10 strikeouts against the Mariners at the start of the month, and Montero is still looking for Big League consistency.
Montero gave up five runs on seven hits through five innings of work against the Dodgers last time out, and I’m predicting some shaky opening frames this afternoon from the 24-year-old.
Outside of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who belted a two-run homer as part of a three-hit day, Toronto had few answers for a Detroit bullpen game yesterday, but there’s a path to better at-bats here as the hosts lean into a younger lineup that features more of Davis Schneider, Spencer Horwitz, and Leo Jimenez.
While Toronto's offensive struggles in early innings have been well documented, there are runs in the forecast at Rogers Centre today, despite Bo Bichette landing on the 10-Day IL. I like these odds for at least five runs through the first five innings.
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Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
George Springer Over 0.5 RBI (+162 at PROLINE+)
Springer isn’t at the top of the list of likeliest Blue Jays to be moved on by the deadline, but he could become an intriguing trade target if he keeps up his July form.
He’s had two hits and three RBI in this series so far — and nine hits in his past seven contests. Back in the lead-off spot, I see Springer doing more damage today and driving in a run for a Toronto team desperate to salvage something from this three-game set.
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Tigers vs Blue Jays odds
Tigers vs Blue Jays live odds
Tigers vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Detroit +1.5 (-160) | Toronto -1.5 (+135)
- Moneyline: Detroit +125 | Toronto -150
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Tigers vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays enter as -160 favorites, but that’s largely down to the pitching matchup where Gausman has a big experience edge over Tigers rookie Montero.
- Detroit brings a four-game win streak into this series finale and an overall 25-26 record on the road in 2024. The visitors have also won the last five meetings against Toronto.
- The Over is 53-42 for the Tigers this season and they’ve gone Over their team total in 12 of their past 17 outings.
- Though Toronto is only averaging 4.01 runs per game in 2024, the hosts have trended toward the Over in a big way in the past six weeks, making that a winning ticket in 22 of their last 34 matchups.
Tigers vs Blue Jays trend
The Tigers are rolling as an outside threat for the last AL Wild Card spot, cashing in the moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs Blue Jays.
Tigers vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Sunday, 7-21-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:37 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Detroit, Sportsnet |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | Keider Montero (1-2, 5.47 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Kevin Gausman (7-8, 4.50 ERA) |
Tigers vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Tigers vs Blue Jays weather
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