With a hard-throwing lefty on the mound, this down matchup I like a lot for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. tonight and his ability to reach base.
Read on to see why in my free Red Sox vs. Blue Jays predictions & MLB picks for today’s matchup on April 28.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays predictions
Red Sox vs Blue Jays best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (-105)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is one of the best hitters in baseball and has been swinging a hot bat lately. He’s sporting .359 batting average over his last 10 games, averaging 1.8 bases per outing.
I have a lot of confidence he’ll keep that trend going, especially with today’s pitching matchup.
Why?
Well that’s because Boston Red Sox starter, Payton Tolle, is a heavy four-seam user, with 52% usage on the pitch against right-handed batters, like Guerrero.
That heavy usage on the four-seamer should have Vladdy locked in and ready to pounce.
Vlad has had a great eye at the plate when it comes to seeing the four-seamer this season. The Toronto Blue Jays slugger owns a .563 average with a .688 slug rate against the pitch this year.
COVERS INTEL: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has two homers and a 1.150 OPS against left-handed pitching this season.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
I like Eloy Jimenez to get a hit tonight. He’s batting .321 this season, with hits in five of his eight starts this year. His .330 xBA against the four-seamer also gives me confidence in his ability to get a hit off Tolle tonight.
For the final leg of my SGP, I’m fading Red Sox top prospect Roman Anthony and taking him to go Over 1.5 strikeouts. He ranks in the 24th percentile in K-rate, but his numbers against the splitter are even worse, which is Trey Yesavage’s put away pitch.
Anthony has a 71% whiff rate and a 40% strikeout rate against the splitter.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays SGP
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
- Eloy Jimenez Over 0.5 hits
- Roman Anthony Over 1.5 strikeouts
Red Sox vs Blue Jays home run pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+380)
Tolle is home run prone with the velocity he throws with, but the Jays haven’t been hitting with much power lately.
However, I’ll continue on the Vladdy train for today’s home run pick, as I do like the matchup for him.
Both of Vladdy’s homers have been against lefties this season, posting an 1.150 OPS against southpaws.
Additionally, he crushes the four-seamer fastball, which Tolle throws 52% of the time against righties. If Guerrero Jr. runs into one, it should leave the yard at a high exit velocity.
- ML/RL bets: 8-19, -7.95
- SGP bets: 3-24, -11.25u
- Home run bets: 5-22, -0.23u
Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds
- Moneyline: Boston -103 | Toronto -116
- Run line: Boston -1.5 (+159) | Toronto +1.5 (-192)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-116) | Under 7.5 (-103)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays trend
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+6.00 Units / 42% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays.
How to watch Red Sox vs Blue Jays and game info
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Tuesday, April 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | NESN, Sportsnet One |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Payton Tolle (0-0, 1.50 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Trey Yesavage (1-0, 3.21 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Red Sox vs Blue Jays weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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