MLB Picks

New York righty Gerrit Cole has allowed two runs or fewer in four of five starts while holding opposing hitters to a pedestrian 30.7% squared-up contact rate and 10.2% blast contact rate, and Detroit lefty Framber Valdez has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 15 starts. The Tigers have also gone Under their team total in 25 of their last 40 games (+7.75 Units / 16% ROI), and they’ve also only gone Over the number in 21 of their last 50 games (-8.35 Units / -15% ROI).

The Chicago Cubs feature a much healthier and deeper lineup, featuring steady production from Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ. Given Kodai Senga’s severe struggles to pitch deep into games or prevent big innings, Chicago's patient hitters should be able to drive up his pitch count early and exploit a vulnerable New York Mets bullpen. Backing the hotter pitcher against a depleted Mets roster is the clear, sharp play.

Brewers are in a strong spot in Cincinnati against Brady Singer, who enters with a poor matchup profile in both wOBA and ISO. Milwaukee’s lineup grades out elite on Batters-Box with five elite-rated bats and one strong hitter, giving them a clear edge at the plate. Singer has struggled at home, posting a 5.61 xERA and 5.33 xFIP while allowing 42.2% hard contact and a 14.1% barrel rate. Milwaukee counters with Brandon Woodruff, who has been excellent on the road with a 2.84 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, limiting damage consistently. Despite the juice, Milwaukee is the side in a small park matchup.

The Dodgers are in a premium spot tonight against Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews, who owns one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate. Matthews has been hammered by left-handed hitters, allowing a 9.00 ERA, 7.01 xERA, and a .417 xwOBA over his last 60 lefties faced. While some of his better outings have come at home, they were against underwhelming offenses that do not compare to this Dodgers lineup. Los Angeles is projected to roll out six elite-rated hitters, making this easily the toughest test Matthews has faced all season. I expect plenty of offensive fireworks from the Dodgers tonight.

The Cleveland Guardians are not a prolific offensive team against lefties but they have fared better on the road, sitting 19th in OBP and third in hard hit rate.

While Gavin Williams is an excellent pitcher, he owns a 4.94 ERA and 1.90 HR/9 on the road – much worse than his home outputs.

Chicago should chip in 3-4 runs, making the Over an appealing buy to -115.

The Cardinals look like they're catching Merrill Kelly at the perfect time. St. Louis enters tonight with an elite rated lineup featuring seven elite-rated bats based on current season performance, with several dangerous lefties set to take advantage of Kelly's biggest weakness. Over his last 60 batters faced, Kelly owns a 7.15 ERA and 2.12 WHIP while allowing left-handed hitters to post a .394 xwOBA. On the other side, Andre Pallante has been much sharper at home, limiting walks and carrying an elite pitcher rating into this matchup. With the pitching edge and offensive advantage, St. Louis is in a strong position tonight.

Although the Atlanta Braves boast a superior overall record, sending a back-of-the-rotation arm against Michael King on the West Coast creates a tough uphill battle. The San Diego Padres have historically excelled in this exact spot, carrying a strong 23-17 record this season as underdogs or tight-line options. With King primed to neutralize Atlanta's power bats and force an early call to a taxed bullpen, San Diego holds the definitive situational edge to take the series opener.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.