The Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros wrap up a three-game set at Daikin Park this afternoon.
Houston took the first two games by a combined score of 17-3, but my Red Sox vs. Astros predictions expect the visitors to win today.
Here are my best free MLB picks for this AL clash on April 1.
Who will win Red Sox vs Astros today: Red Sox (-141)
The Boston Red Sox are on a four-game skid, but their last victory came in their season opener with ace Garrett Crochet (2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP in 2025) on the mound. Last year's AL Cy Young runner-up threw six shutout innings in that game.
The Houston Astros respond with Mike Burrows, who surrendered nine hits and five runs in 5 2/3 frames last Friday. The righty had a 4.33 xERA in 19 starts last year while sitting in the 15th percentile in barrel rate.
The edge in starting pitchers alone is enough for me to back Boston today.
COVERS INTEL: The Red Sox are 15-2 in Garrett Crochet's last 17 starts.
Red Sox vs Astros Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (+115)
While I expect Crochet to lead Boston to a win, he won't be quite as dominant as usual.
The Astros have a lineup stacked with righties and boast an incredible .945 OPS against southpaws like Crochet and closer Aroldis Chapman. Crochet has struggled against several Astros hitters, including Jose Altuve and Jeremy Pena.
That said, Boston's lineup will be even more productive against Burrows. The Red Sox are batting just .163 over their last three games. However, they rank third in the majors in exit velocity and eighth in barrel rate, suggesting positive regression.
- ML/RL bets: 3-1, +1.56 units
- Over/Under bets: 0-0
Red Sox vs Astros odds
- Moneyline: Red Sox (-138) | Astros (+133)
- Run line: Red Sox -1.5 (+133) | Astros +1.5 (-138)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+122) | Under 7.5 (-127)
Red Sox vs Astros trend
The Over has hit in four of Houston's six games. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Astros.
How to watch Red Sox vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, April 1, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | NESN, SCHN |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Garrett Crochet (1-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Mike Burrows (0-1, 7.94 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Astros latest injuries
Red Sox vs Astros weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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