It's a return for one of the New York Yankees stars as they welcome the Tampa Bay Rays to town for a weekend series.
Tampa has been hot, winning four straight games, while the Yankees have not. New York has scored a total of five runs over the last three games and lost two straight. I expect we will see some carryover here.
Read all about why in my Yankees vs. Rays predictions and MLB picks for Friday, May 22.
Who will win Rays vs Yankees today: Rays moneyline (+136)
Gerrit Cole returns to Yankee Stadium today after not pitching since Game 4 of the 2024 World Series, roughly 569 days ago, and I’m willing to fade him at anything up to +100.
Cole posted a 4.66 ERA across six minor league rehab starts, and this matchup sets up poorly against a Rays lineup that has the lowest whiff-rate (19%) in baseball.
Last season, Cole still relied heavily on strikeouts despite carrying a bottom 40% barrel rate. The Tampa Bay Rays enter off a sweep, while the New York Yankees have scored just five total runs across their last three games.
COVERS INTEL: Rays vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-120)
The driving force here is the Cole rust. I projected 8.6 runs, so I'm happy to get this number that feels a half run light. Nick Martinez plays a role here, too.
While I expect him to do enough to get Tampa across the finish line, it won't come without struggles. The xERA of 3.86 tells the true story: Martinez has been good, but he's due for regression.
His 16% strikeout rate sits in the bottom 14th percentile, and a 31% chase rate is a profile the Yankees can attack; Tampa simply outslugs them.
- ML/RL bets: 20-18, +1.20 units
- Over/Under bets: 24-14, +12.54 units
Rays vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +125 | New York -155
- Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 | New York -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Rays vs Yankees trend
The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 45 games (+19.60 Units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Yankees.
How to watch Rays vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Friday, May 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rays.TV, YES |
| Rays starting pitcher | Nick Martinez (4-1, 1.51 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Gerrit Cole (2024: 8-5, 3.41 ERA) |
Rays vs Yankees latest injuries
Rays vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
