MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Nationals Park as the 5th-worst field in baseball for boosting offensive stats to left-handed hitters.. Nationals Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to less offense.

After breaking through the slump yesterday, I'm more comfortable holding the Yankees to their regular-season priors. This profile looks like a matchup we’ve seen so often against New York: a starting pitcher with a high barrel rate problem that the Yankees expose. Matthews enters this matchup with one in the bottom 5th percentile of the MLB. A metric the Yankees still top the league in.
 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Brandon Nimmo is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. In the league, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Brandon Nimmo will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jack Flaherty today.. Brandon Nimmo will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kazuma Okamoto in the 96th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Kazuma Okamoto is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. T-Mobile Park has the 10th-shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. Kazuma Okamoto pulls many of his flyballs (37.8% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Noelvi Marte in the 84th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Great American Ball Park as the best field in baseball for right-handed home runs.. In Major League Baseball, Great American Ball Park's left field dimensions are the 7th-shallowest.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Noelvi Marte will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Drew Rasmussen and Hunter Brown have consistently silenced opponents early, combining dominant first-inning form with strong underlying metrics. Houston owns just a 78 wRC+ over the last two weeks, while Tampa has been scoreless in the first in consecutive games, making another quiet opening frame likely.

In MLB, the 4th-tallest fences are at Progressive Field.. Kyle Manzardo hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 7th-deepest CF fences today.. Typically, batters like Kyle Manzardo who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Sean Burke.

As it relates to his home run ability, Matt Olson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Olson is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 9th-best venue in the league for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters.. Truist Park has the shallowest centerfield dimensions in the league.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to better offense.

Jose Fermin's BABIP skill is projected in the 9th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jose Fermin is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.. The league's 7th-tallest fences can be found at Wrigley Field.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most suitable for pitching of all games on the slate today.. The Chicago Cubs infield defense grades out as the strongest among all the teams playing today.

Bryce Harper projects as the 10th-best batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Kauffman Stadium as the 5th-best venue in baseball for run-scoring.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 5th-hottest weather on the slate today at 90°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Heliot Ramos is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best venue in the majors for run-scoring.. Coors Field sits at the highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.

Angel Stadium has the 2nd-shortest fences among all parks.. Oswald Peraza will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Gabriel Moreno is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. Chase Field projects as the #3 stadium in baseball for righty base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to better offense.. Gabriel Moreno will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Javier Sanoja in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Sutter Health Park grades out as the #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Sutter Health Park has the 4th-shortest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 98°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.2-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for batters.

Teoscar Hernandez's BABIP ability is projected in the 93rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Dodger Stadium as the 2nd-best ballpark in the game for righty home runs.. Among all parks, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. Teoscar Hernandez will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Sproat throws from, Alec Burleson will have an edge today.. Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.