Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 4, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
PIT
@
WAS
Sat, Jul 4 • 11:05 AM ET
MIN
@
NYY
Sat, Jul 4 • 1:35 PM ET
o9.5 (-125)
Both lineups have a clear team-level path to damage. Matthews allows too much lift, and the Yankees’ offense is built to punish that with an above-average fly-ball rate, barrel rate, and expected slugging percentage.
The Twins can answer against Brendan Beck. The sample size is super small for the young arm, who makes just his second appearance of the season and first career start; however, he allowed some loud contact in his first outing with an average exit velocity of 97.8 mph. The Twins, who have a near-14 % barrel rate, can expose that. Play to 10.
NYY (-158)
After breaking through the slump yesterday, I'm more comfortable holding the Yankees to their regular-season priors. This profile looks like a matchup we’ve seen so often against New York: a starting pitcher with a high barrel rate problem that the Yankees expose. Matthews enters this matchup with one in the bottom 5th percentile of the MLB. A metric the Yankees still top the league in.
DET
@
TEX
Sat, Jul 4 • 4:05 PM ET
YRFI/NRFI (Yes: -103)
Jack Flaherty enters in strong form, but both offenses have consistently produced early, with Texas batting .274 in the first inning and Detroit carrying a 115 wRC+ over its last six games. Kumar Rocker's first-inning struggles only strengthen the outlook for runs before the second inning begins.
TOR
@
SEA
Sat, Jul 4 • 4:10 PM ET
BAL
@
CIN
Sat, Jul 4 • 7:10 PM ET
TB
@
HOU
Sat, Jul 4 • 7:10 PM ET
YRFI/NRFI (No: -131)
Drew Rasmussen and Hunter Brown have consistently silenced opponents early, combining dominant first-inning form with strong underlying metrics. Houston owns just a 78 wRC+ over the last two weeks, while Tampa has been scoreless in the first in consecutive games, making another quiet opening frame likely.
CHW
@
CLE
Sat, Jul 4 • 7:10 PM ET
YRFI/NRFI (No: -121)
Parker Messick has yet to allow a first-inning run across 17 starts, while Sean Burke enters with a 3.02 xERA over his last two outings. With Chicago batting just .213 in the opening frame and Cleveland posting an 82 wRC+ recently, another scoreless first inning stands out.
NYM
@
ATL
Sat, Jul 4 • 8:08 PM ET
STL
@
CHC
Sat, Jul 4 • 8:08 PM ET
PHI
@
KC
Sat, Jul 4 • 8:10 PM ET
SF
@
COL
Sat, Jul 4 • 8:10 PM ET
BOS
@
LAA
Sat, Jul 4 • 9:38 PM ET
MIL
@
AZ
Sat, Jul 4 • 9:40 PM ET
MIA
@
ATH
Sat, Jul 4 • 9:40 PM ET
SD
@
LAD
Sat, Jul 4 • 10:10 PM ET
MIL
@
STL
Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
AZ
@
STL
Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
o2.5 Team Total (-115)
The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.
Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.
TOR
@
CHC
Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.
Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
ATL (-112)
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-110)
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
NYY (-135)
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
o7.5 (-116)
SF (+124)
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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