Rangers vs Mariners Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

Logan Gilbert is amid the best season of his career, and the Mariner ace has been especially dominant at home. With Texas sans its best hitter, we're backing the right-hander to shine in tonight's divisional battle.

Todd Cordell - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Todd Cordell • Betting Analyst
Sep 14, 2024 • 10:52 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Logan Gilbert Seattle Mariners MLB
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The Seattle Mariners are in the midst of a solid 6-4 run. They’ll turn to ace Logan Gilbert on Saturday night as they look to grab another win against an inner division foe and inch closer toward the AL West-leading Houston Astros.

My Rangers vs. Mariners predictions see Gilbert continuing his home success against a Corey Seager-less Texas team. Let’s take a closer look at this matchup with my MLB picks for September 14.

Rangers vs Mariners prediction

My best bet
Logan Gilbert Under 4.5 hits allowed (+110 at DraftKings)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis

Logan Gilbert has done a remarkable job of limiting hits all season long. The Seattle Mariners right-hander has been especially effective on home soil, where he’s allowed four hits or fewer in 10 of 13 starts.

I expect the good times to continue against the Texas Rangers. They have dropped three of the past four games and seen their slim playoff hopes evaporate to (almost) none. FanGraphs gives them only a 0.1% chance of making it to the dance.

The Rangers have scored only 13 runs over the last four games (3.25 per game) and are clearly finding it difficult to muster up consistent offense without superstar Corey Seager. That’s probably not going to change — particularly now that their playoff hopes are gone and the team is playing for nothing.

Gilbert has enjoyed consistent success against this Rangers lineup. Dating back to last season, he’s allowed three hits or fewer in four of five head-to-head meetings and all three on home soil.

Over a combined average of 16 plate appearances each, Marcus Semien, Josh Smith, Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung, and Leody Tavares have all hit .200 or worse against Gilbert in their careers. They know what Gilbert is about and have still struggled mightily to dish out any sort of damage.

Gilbert is sporting an impressive .259 xwOBA over the past month and has struck out more than 34% of opposing batters in that span. The M's ace is pitching very well and I don’t see that changing against a Rangers team that's missing its best hitter and lacking motivation. 

Rangers vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)

Logan Gilbert Under 4.5 hits allowed

Logan Gilbert Under 1.5 walks allowed

Luke Raley Over 0.5 hits 

We’re going to double-dip with Gilbert and also back him to limit walks against Texas, as the right-hander has walked fewer than two batters in 76% of his starts this season, and 85% of the time when playing on home soil. His control is incredible; he hammers the strike zone and wastes very few pitches.

Luke Raley is a priority target for me due to his attractive -125 price tag for a hit, especially in a matchup where the splits heavily favor him. Meanwhile, Max Scherzer has allowed a .258 batting average against left-handed hitters, much higher than his .217 average versus righties.

Conversely, Raley is terrible vs. left-handed pitchers (.171 BA) but quite good against righties like Scherzer (.257).

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rangers vs Mariners odds

Rangers vs Mariners live odds

Rangers vs Mariners opening odds

  • Moneyline: Texas +120 | Seattle -130
  • Run line: Texas +1.5 (-190) | Seattle -1.5 (+170)
  • Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-118) | Under 6.5 (+105)

Rangers vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis

  • The moneyline has soared for those hoping to jump on the Mariners. They opened as -135 favorites and are now being priced at -155 on Pinnacle.
  • As good as the pitching matchup is, we’ve seen some movement towards the Over on a very low total of 6.5. The O/U opened at -118 at Pinnacle and now sits at -101.

Rangers vs Mariners trend

Gilbert has allowed four hits or fewer in four straight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Mariners.

Rangers vs Mariners game info

Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
Date: Saturday, 9-14-2024
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
TV: BSSW, RSNW
Rangers starting pitcher: Max Scherzer
(2-4, 3.89 ERA)
Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert
(7-11, 3.15 ERA)

Rangers vs Mariners latest injuries

Rangers vs Mariners weather

Not intended for use in MA.
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Todd Cordell - Covers
Betting Analyst

Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.

 

When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.

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