We're fading one arm, backing another, and targeting a hitter to clear his hits, runs, and RBI prop.
Headlined by Ranger Suarez, here are my three favorite MLB player props for Thursday, Aug. 6.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Ranger Suarez |
Over 5.5 strikeouts | -146 |
 Bailey Ober |
Under 3.5 strikeouts | +133 |
 Brandon Lowe |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | -101 |
Ranger Suarez Over 5.5 strikeouts (-146)
Boston Red Sox southpaw Ranger Suarez is in a great spot to eclipse his strikeout prop this evening, as he draws a Chicago White Sox team that has struggled against left-handed pitching this season.
Over the team's last 60 at-bats against lefties, eight hitters own at least a 22% strikeout rate, while five have struck out at a clip of at least 26.7%. On the season, five projected bats carry strikeout rates of at least 25.4%.
Suarez has been wheeling and dealing as of late. Over his last five starts, he owns a 30.3% strikeout rate, a 24.6% whiff rate, and nearly a 70% first-pitch strike rate.
Play this to -150, or alt this prop to 7+ strikeouts.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, NESN
Bailey Ober Under 3.5 strikeouts (+133)
Minnesota Twins right-hander Bailey Ober owns the third-lowest strikeout rate in Batters-Box's current season dataset. On top of that, he has posted just a 14.4% strikeout rate on the road and a 17.9% strikeout rate over his last five starts.
Ober now draws one of the toughest teams in baseball to strike out. Over their last six games, the Kansas City Royals sport a 15.4% strikeout rate and an 80.4% contact rate. Across their last 12 home games, those numbers are even better, with Kansas City boasting a 13.6% strikeout rate and an 83.5% contact rate.
Considering how frequently the Royals put the ball in play, Ober will have a difficult time racking up punchouts.
I'd play this down to +120.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-101)
According to Batters-Box, Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Brandon Lowe has cleared this prop in over 71% of his elite-rated road games. Across 107 elite ratings dating back to the last three seasons, he has gone Over 1.5 HRR in 63.55% of those contests.
This afternoon against Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Dustin May, Lowe owns nearly 95% arsenal coverage against the right-hander's entire pitch mix. Spanning his last 15 games, the Pirates slugger has posted a .290 batting average, 60% elevation rate, and 10% barrel rate.
Over the last 30 left-handed hitters May has faced, opponents have produced a 52.6% hard hit rate, 68.4% elevation rate, .394 xBA, .529 xSLG, and .414 xwOBA.
This is a massive misprice, even at -101. I'd be comfortable playing it down to -120.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BREW, SNP
- Prop picks: 360-726, -27.5 units | FADE ME.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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