A fresh week is in front of us as we look to back a pair of players and fade a pitcher on Monday's MLB slate.
Here are my three favorite MLB player props for August 3.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Brandon Lowe |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | -108 |
 Aaron Nola |
Over 2.5 earned runs | +104 |
 Brandon Pfaadt |
Under 4.5 strikeouts | -158 |
Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-108)
First off, this is a complete misprice. Win or lose, this is a steal for Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Brandon Lowe to go over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI.
For starters, this marks Lowe's 106th elite rating on Batters-Box. Over the previous 105 elite ratings across the last three seasons, he has cleared this prop 62.86% of the time. Even more impressive, in 47 road elite ratings during that span, he's surpassed it 70.21% of the time. Those are trends I simply can't ignore.
Lowe enters Monday with one of the hottest bats in the Pirates lineup, batting .310 with a .517 SLG, .850 OPS, a 46.5% hard hit rate, and a 9.3% barrel rate over his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
He now draws Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Brandon Sproat, who has struggled against left-handed hitters this season. Over his last 30 plate appearances against lefties, he's allowed a 42.1% hard-hit rate, 15.8% barrel rate, and 68.5% elevation rate. Those hitters have also produced a .453 xSLG, .390 xwOBA, and .240 ISO during that stretch.
There are plenty of reasons to like Lowe tonight, but seeing him clear this prop in more than 70% of his road elite ratings is the stat that's toughest to ignore. I'd play this all the way to -125.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BREW, SNP
Aaron Nola Over 2.5 rarned runs (+104)
No Luis Garcia Jr., no problem.
The Washington Nationals enter Monday with five hitters carrying either an elite or strong rating on Batters-Box, giving them the highest-rated offense on the slate. They will face Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola, who is the second-lowest-rated pitcher of the day and owns poor matchup ratings in wOBA, ISO, and hard contact allowed.
Despite a tough offensive week, I'm still confident the highest rated offense on the board can get the job done against a pitcher with a 6.70 home ERA this season.
It gets even better. Over the last 30 left-handed hitters he's faced, Nola has allowed a 70.8% hard-hit rate, 16.7% barrel rate, and a 75% elevation rate. Those hitters have also produced a .440 xBA, .817 xSLG, and .509 xwOBA. That's a recipe for disaster against a lineup with this much upside. All five of those highly rated bats will bats from the left side this evening.
If you're hesitant about the 2.5 earned runs, the Nationals' first five team total is just 1.5 at -150. Asking the highest-rated offense on today's slate to score two runs in the first five innings feels like an insult, regardless of the outcome.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NATS, NBCS-Philadelphia
Brandon Pfaadt Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-158)
Despite the complete turnaround from Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Brandon Pfaadt over his last five outings, he's still not a strikeout pitcher. That's exactly why I love the under on his strikeout prop against the San Diego Padres tonight.
On the season, the heavy ground-ball pitcher owns just a 15.91% strikeout rate, and over his last three starts, that number has dropped even further to 10.39%.
Pfaadt also owns the lowest average strikeout rate on Batters-Box's current season ratings. Now he draws a Padres lineup that doesn't feature a single projected hitter above the league average strikeout rate.
Against right-handed pitching, San Diego has just three hitters above a 22% strikeout rate over their last 60 plate appearances. As a team, they've maintained a strikeout rate below 20% across their last 21 games.
Despite the heavy juice, I think this is a fantastic way to close out the night. I'd play this to -160.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ARID, SDPA
- Prop picks: 356-702, -18.8 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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