The New York Yankees are -120 favorites against the Pittsburgh Pirates in tonight's series opener at Yankee Stadium.
My Pirates vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks expect the road team to take advantage of Ryan Weathers and his struggles limiting power on Monday, July 20.
Who will win Pirates vs Yankees today: Pirates (+100)
The Pittsburgh Pirates hammer baseballs. That’s what they’re built to do.
They are tied for 10th in homers and slot third in hard-hit rate against lefties despite Esmerlyn Valdez being new to the scene. They were built in a lab to exploit Ryan Weathers, who sits in the 14th percentile in barrel rate and 29th in hard-hit rate.
The New York Yankees have power but struggle with discipline, owning the fifth-highest K% vs. righties in July. Braxton Ashcraft’s 96th percentile chase rate should play well.
Pittsburgh shouldn’t be even money. Bet to -115.
COVERS INTEL: The Pirates have hit homers on 17.1% of their fly balls over the last month, ranking second in the majors.
Pirates vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 8 (+100)
Yankee Stadium is the third-most favorable park for home run hitters, and both of these teams possess the power to capitalize.
The Pirates rank second in OPS this month, and their power is unlikely to be hindered given the abundance of hard contact Weathers concedes.
While Ashcraft is more likely to hold up, he ranks in the 32nd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed. He’s not exactly immune to power, and the Yankees are tied for seventh in homers in July.
The long balls should help push this game Over. Bet to -115.
- ML/RL bets: 60-48, +1.60 units
- Over/Under bets: 59-44-5, +7.49 units
Pirates vs Yankees weather
Temperatures in the low 80s are expected. The warm weather should allow for balls to carry a little further in what is already a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Pirates vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +100 | New York -120
- Run line: Pittsburgh -1.5 (+165) | New York +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 (+100) | Under 8.0 (-120)
Pirates vs Yankees trend
Pittsburgh has hit the Game Total Over in 30 of the last 45 games (+14.95 units, 30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Yankees.
How to watch Pirates vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Monday, July 20, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNP, YES |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Braxton Ashcraft (9-3, 3.49 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Ryan Weathers (3-7, 4.15 ERA) |
Pirates vs Yankees latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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