The two teams atop the National League standings begin a three-game series as the Philadelphia Phillies (66-45) face the Los Angeles Dodgers (65-47). Game 1 is an anticipated pitchers’ duel between Aaron Nola and Tyler Glasnow, but I’ve found a hitter prop worth backing.
Read on for my Phillies vs. Dodgers prediction and MLB picks for Monday, August 5.
Phillies vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Gavin Lux Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+115 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Los Angeles Dodgers have managed to stay productive at the plate regardless of who is in the lineup. When Dave Roberts and his club most need it, someone seems to answer the call.
Lately, that player has been Gavin Lux. With Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman out, Lux has transformed into an offensive force that opposing pitchers don’t know how to handle. He’s posted a 229 wRC+ since the All-Star Break, which ranks sixth among all hitters.
The second baseman typically does his damage against RHP (career .260 BA and 105 wRC+) compared to LHP (.209 BA and 62 wRC+).
Aaron Nola gets the nod for the Philadelphia Phillies. While he’s not what most would consider an easy matchup, his 4.51 FIP against left-handed batters this season isn’t pristine. He’s been beatable when pitching away from home lately, averaging 3.4 earned runs allowed in his last five starts on the road.
While Monday’s game features two tremendous starters, the weather forecast favors the hitters. It’ll be somewhat warm (78 degrees) with nine mph winds blowing out.
The books have set Lux’s prop for Hits, Runs, and RBIs at 1.5 with slight plus money to the Over.
He’s been hitting out of the third spot in the lineup lately as a trusted member of Roberts’ plans. While that might change when Freeman returns — he’s tentatively expected back either Monday or Tuesday — Lux has nevertheless earned a prominent spot on the lineup card.
The 26-year-old rides a nine-game hitting streak heading into the week. He’s recorded 2+ Hits, Runs, and RBIs in each of those contests while averaging 2.4 per game. I’ll be on him cashing this prop for a 10th straight game on Monday night.
Phillies vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Gavin Lux Over 0.5 hits
Gavin Lux Over 0.5 RBI
Tyler Glasnow Over 7.5 strikeouts
Hits + Runs + RBI props aren't eligible for SGPs, so I've come up with a logical alternative to kick things off here.
For all of the star power in Philadelphia’s lineup, it sure has fallen short of expectations recently. The Phillies have the second-worst wRC+ (67) and wOBA (.264) since the break while striking out 24.2% of the time.
Tyler Glasnow likely won’t be the pitcher to cure those ills. He’s been elite this season, ranking in the 94th percentile in xBA (.196) and the 97th percentile in xERA (2.60).
The towering hurler has a 32.8% K rate and has notched 8+ strikeouts in 12 of his last 17 starts. He sets up well to do so again against a greatly underperforming lineup.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Dodgers odds
Phillies vs Dodgers live odds
Phillies vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 | Los Angeles -1.5
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +116 | Los Angeles -126
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Phillies vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Phillies have been in a dreadful slump since the All-Star Break. They snapped a six-game losing streak on Sunday to move to 4-11 in their last 15 games.
- For as great as Glasnow has been this season, the Dodgers have trended to the Over lately when he’s on the mound. They are 6-1 O/U in his last seven starts.
- These teams are 7-0 O/U in their last seven meetings at Dodger Stadium.
Phillies vs Dodgers trend
Lux has recorded 2+ Hits, Runs, and RBIs in nine straight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Dodgers.
Phillies vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Monday, 8-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSP, SNLA |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Aaron Nola (11-4, 3.43 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Tyler Glasnow (8-6, 3.50 ERA) |
Phillies vs Dodgers latest injuries
Phillies vs Dodgers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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