Saturday’s MLB slate is one of the deepest of the week, with a full board and plenty of spots where the market hasn’t fully caught up.
Early in the season, pricing can still lag behind form, pitching matchups, and lineup trends — and that’s where value shows up. Rather than chasing big favorites, we’re targeting moneyline edges where the numbers and game scripts don’t quite align.
Find out more in my MLB picks for April 18.
MLB moneyline picks for April 18
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 KCvs  NYY |
-161 |
 CINvs  MIN |
-143 |
 NYMvs  CHC |
-116 |
 SFvs  WSH |
-103 |
 TBvs  PIT |
-152 |
 CWSvs  ATH |
-161 |
 DETvs  BOS |
-167 |
 MILvs  MIA |
-111 |
 BALvs  CLE |
-132 |
 STLvs  HOU |
-149 |
 TEXvs  SEA |
-137 |
 ATLvs  PHI |
-127 |
 LADvs  COL |
-278 |
 TORvs  AZ |
+105 |
 SDvs  LAA |
-116 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 4-18.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for April 18
Royals vs Yankees: Yankees (-161)
Yankees win probability: 59%
The New York Yankees have the clear edge in both lineup and bullpen, and this is the kind of spot where they usually take care of business at home.
Reds vs Twins: Twins (-143)
Twins win probability: 54%
Minnesota is the more complete team right now, with the better pitching matchup and a lineup that’s been more consistent top to bottom.
Mets vs Cubs: Cubs (-116)
Cubs win probability: 51%
The Cubs are simply playing better baseball (not by much), while the Mets continue to shoot themselves in the foot early in the season.
Giants vs Nationals: Nationals (-103)
Nationals win probability: 48%
Washington has been more competitive than expected, and getting the Nationals at near even money against a shaky Giants team is worth a shot, especially given their edge on offense.
Rays vs Pirates: Pirates (-152)
Pirates win probability: 61%
See Paul Skenes.... bet Paul Skenes... and hope the Pirates bats show up for him.
White Sox vs Athletics: Athletics (-161)
A's win probability: 60%
Neither team provides much confidence, but the White Sox away from home are worse than they are in Chicago.
Tigers vs Red Sox: Tigers (-167)
Tigers win probability: 62%
Detroit has the pitching advantage here, and the Tigers have been far more reliable at preventing runs than Boston.
Brewers vs Marlins: Marlins (-111)
Marlins win probability: 50%
This is a coin-flip type game, but Miami’s pitching gives the home side a slight edge in what should be a low-scoring matchup.
Orioles vs Guardians: Guardians (-132)
Guardians win probability: 54%
Cleveland’s pitching and ability to make hay at home should be enough here, especially against a volatile Orioles staff.
Cardinals vs Astros: Astros (-139)
Astros win probability: 55%
Houston is the more disciplined and explosive team at the plate and typically capitalizes in situations where St. Louis tends to let games slip away.
Rangers vs Mariners: Mariners (-137)
Mariners win probability: 54%
Most of the edge in the batter's box goes to Texas, but the Mariners pitching is top-notch, and I like Kirby a little bit more than Eovaldi in this spot.
Braves vs Phillies: Phillies (-127)
Phillies win probability: 52%
Normally, I'd take the high-powered Braves, but the pitching matchup favors the Phillies, and I expect them to tag Chris Sale early and often.
Dodgers vs Rockies: Dodgers (-278)
Dodgers win probability: 71%
The odds speak for themselves.
Blue Jays vs Diamondbacks: Blue Jays (+105)
Blue Jays win probability: 46%
Call this the Mad Max bounce-back game. The Diamondbacks' offense is inconsistent, so I look for the veteran pitcher to come up big.
Padres vs Angels: Angels (-116)
Angels win probability: 50%
The Angels have plenty of power in their lineup, and they are playing at home. German Marquez boasts a 5.54 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. That should be all they need to pick up the win.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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