MLB Predictions and Moneyline Picks for Monday, July 20

Happy Monday, everyone!

A new week brings a ton of opportunities, and tonight's MLB moneyline predictions are no exception. 

Let's dive into the full slate with my MLB picks on Monday, July 20!

MLB moneyline picks for July 20

Matchup	Pick
Twins vs Guardians	-113
Dodgers vs Phillies	+125
Pirates vs Yankees	+106
Rays vs Blue Jays	-150
Orioles vs Red Sox	-138
Padres vs Braves	+130
Mets vs Brewers	-199
Giants vs Royals	-111
White Sox vs Rangers	-160
Tigers vs Cubs	+106
Marlins vs Astros	-117
Nationals vs Rockies	-117
Athletics vs Diamondbacks	+144
Reds vs Mariners	+138
Cardinals vs Angels	+104

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of July 20.

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Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 20

Twins vs Guardians: Twins (-113)

Twins win probability: 53%

We’re getting a ton of value with the Minnesota Twins in this matchup.

The Cleveland Guardians offense has been ice cold, and now they will send Tanner Bibee to the mound, who has posted a 4.58 ERA over his last three starts. This feels like a perfect spot to fade Cleveland and back Minnesota.

On the other side, the Twins hand the ball to Joe Ryan, who has been absolutely NAILS all season long. Their offense has been swinging it well too, posting a 110 wRC+, .327 wOBA, and .744 OPS over their last 12 games.

Give me the Twins.

Dodgers vs Phillies: Dodgers (+125)

Dodgers win probability: 44%

As lazy as this may sound, when's the next time you're going to get the Los Angeles Dodgers at +125? Seriously.

Emmet Sheehan has looked sharp over his last three outings, posting a 2.87 xERA and 0.95 WHIP. Meanwhile, Cristopher Sanchez has hit a bit of a rough patch in his last few starts.

Getting the Dodgers at plus money is a price I'm willing to take. Give me Los Angeles at +125.

Pirates vs Yankees: Pirates (+106)

Pirates win probability: 48%

The way the New York Yankees have played over the last month, I can't bring myself to back them today, tomorrow, or the next day. Until they prove they've turned things around, they'll remain an auto fade for me. And trust me, it pains me to say that because this is my team.

Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates offense has been on a tear over the last week, posting a 145 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .223 ISO, and an .860 OPS. At +106, give me the Buccos.

Rays vs Blue Jays: Blue Jays (-150)

Blue Jays win probability: 60%

Sure, the Toronto Blue Jays offense has been pretty cold over the last month, but the Tampa Bay Rays haven't been much better over the last few weeks. With Dylan Cease on the mound, I think he puts Toronto in a position where the offense only needs to do the bare minimum to come away with a win.

Orioles vs Red Sox: Red Sox (-138)

Red Sox win probability: 58%

I want to see them make it 14 straight.

I'm also a huge fan of lefty Payton Tolle, who's been outstanding for the Boston Red Sox this season. Baltimore Orioles starter Shane Baz has pitched well lately, but there's still one concern. He's allowing 46% hard contact, and that's a number that can catch up to you in a hurry.

I'll keep riding the hottest team in baseball. Give me the Red Sox to come out on top once again.

Padres vs Braves: Padres (+130)

Padres win probability: 44%

The San Diego Padres shouldn't be +130 underdogs when the Atlanta Braves have been just as bad over the last few weeks. On top of that, neither starter has inspired much confidence lately. JP Sears owns a 5.79 ERA over his last three starts, while Bryce Elder has been even worse with a 10.29 ERA.

I'll gladly take the plus money here. Give me the Padres as the underdog.

Mets vs Brewers: Brewers (-199)

Brewers win probability: 66%

Until we see Jacob Misiorowski take a step back, I don't know how you can bet against the Milwaukee Brewers. I don't care if it's Freddy Peralta's return to Milwaukee. He's posted a 5.58 ERA on the road, while the New York Mets have managed just a 90 wRC+ over their last six games.

Give me the Brewers on the run line at plus money for a better overall price tag.

Giants vs Royals: Royals (-111)

Royals win probability: 52%

Sure, both offenses have cooled off over their last few games, but there's one thing you can usually count on: the Kansas City Royals playing their best baseball at Kauffman Stadium. That's also where Michael Wacha has done his best work, posting a 3.21 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at home.

On the other side, Tyler Mahle has struggled mightily on the road with an 8.45 ERA. I'd much rather trust the team that consistently plays better at home.

White Sox vs Rangers: Rangers (-160)

Rangers win probability: 62%

I'm taking Jacob deGrom over Erick Fedde 10 times out of 10, especially with how well the Texas Rangers have been swinging the bats lately. This feels like a great spot for Texas to stay hot offensively while their ace takes care of business on the mound.

Tigers vs Cubs: Tigers (+106)

Tigers win probability: 48%

I'm never a fan of backing the Detroit Tigers because of their inconsistencies, but after putting up 10 runs the day before, it's tough to expect them to replicate that type of offensive explosion in back-to-back games.

Plus, when you throw out Jameson Taillon, who owns a 7.77 ERA, 6.92 xERA, and 1.64 WHIP over his last five starts, I don't have much confidence in him keeping things under control for the Chicago Cubs.

Marlins vs Astros: Astros (-117)

Astros win probability: 54%

The Miami Marlins have posted a 65 wRC+, .261 wOBA, .578 OPS, and .117 ISO over their last six games, and that makes it tough for me to back them in this spot.

Have the Houston Astros been playing great baseball lately? Not really. But they are back at home, and they still have Yordan Alvarez, who feels due to make an impact at any moment.

I'll side with Houston here.

Nationals vs Rockies: Nationals (-117)

Nationals win probability: 54%

Only having to pay 17 cents of juice for one of the most explosive offenses in baseball, in Coors Field? Yeah, I want the Washington Nationals.

The Colorado Rockies have gone cold since the break, while the Nationals have been scorching hot all month long. Give me Washington to keep the momentum rolling.

Athletics vs Diamondbacks: Athletics (+144)

Athletics win probability: 41%

Neither team has been particularly impressive over the last month or so, but I think getting the Athletics at +144 as an underdog provides great value.

This is an offense that feels primed to break out at any moment, and the Arizona Diamondbacks pitching staff has been atrocious all season long. I'll gladly take the plus money and back the dog here.

Reds vs Mariners: Reds (+138)

Reds win probability: 42%

The Seattle Mariners have been an ice cube offensively for over a month, while the Cincinnati Reds have been absolutely scorching hot.

If George Kirby's strikeout rate hadn't dipped so much over his last few outings, I may have leaned toward Seattle. But when you're not missing bats, it's tough to slow down a Reds lineup that's been putting pressure on opposing pitchers.

Give me Cincinnati here.

Cardinals vs Angels: Cardinals (+104)

Cardinals win probability: 49%

Yup, another dog.

Kyle Leahy has been lights out over his last five starts, posting a 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Meanwhile, Jose Soriano has been one of the biggest disappointments since April, struggling badly over his last five starts with a 6.38 ERA and 12.50 WHIP.

Both offenses have been cold, but in my opinion, the St. Louis Cardinals have the much better offensive unit. At this price, give me the dog.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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