The Pittsburgh Pirates are -135 moneyline to end their three-game losing streak tonight when they host the New York Mets.
I'm skeptical they'll be able to do so, and see value in backing New York with my Mets vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 7.
Who will win Mets vs Pirates today: New York Mets (+115)
The Pittsburgh Pirates are struggling at the dish, hitting .234 the past month while striking out at the fourth-highest rate. Their outputs underwhelm against righties and lefties.
Zac Thornton has suppressed power effectively (0.79 HR/9) and held opponents to a .211 average this season. His counting numbers are a little deceiving, but this isn’t a matchup regression should come calling.
The New York Mets sit 15th in wOBA vs. righties over the last 30 days, and have shown good power with the fourth highest HR/FB rate.
I see plenty of value at this price. Bet to +100.
COVERS INTEL: The Pirates slot 22nd in ISO against lefties the last 30 days, playing further into Thornton's excellent home run prevention.
Mets vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-120)
The best way to score runs in bulk is power, and I don’t see a recipe for a lot of quick strike offense in this game.
Thornton has his faults but has done an exceptional job at keeping the ball in the park. The Pirates rank 29th in hard hit rate against lefties the past month, so they don’t profile as likely to change that.
Carmen Mlodzinski has also done a superb job of limiting homers (0.54 HR/9), and he has the seventh-best bullpen by xFIP the last month backing him up.
I make fair price -133.
- ML/RL bets: 71-66, -9.65 units
- Over/Under bets: 76-55-6, +12.09 units
Mets vs Pirates weather
Temperatures are expected to hover around 80, with showers and winds blowing from the west. No real impact on bats.
Mets vs Pirates odds
- Moneyline: Mets +115 | Pirates -135
- Run line: Mets +1.5 (-170) | Pirates -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-120) | Under 8.0 (+100)
Mets vs Pirates trend
New York has hit the moneyline in eight of the last 11 away games (+5.55 units, 41% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Pirates.
How to watch Mets vs Pirates and game info
| Location | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Friday, August 7, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | WPIX-11, SNP |
| Mets starting pitcher | Zac Thornton (2-2, 2.88 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Carmen Mlodzinski (6-3, 3.15 ERA) |
Mets vs Pirates latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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