The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies begin a three-game NL East series Thursday, June 18 at Citizens Bank Park, and my best Mets vs. Phillies predictions have you covered for the opener.
Philly has won 30 of its past 45 games, and my free MLB picks call for another home win for Philadelphia tonight.
Who will win Mets vs Phillies today: Phillies moneyline (-116)
While it hasn’t been pretty for Philadelphia Phillies veteran Aaron Nola, his underlying 3.49 xFIP at home is impressive, and Philly ranks 11th in wOBA and sixth in ISO at Citizens Bank Park.
So, with the New York Mets sporting respective 29th- and 26th-ranked marks on the highway, I’m expecting Nola to pitch well enough for the Phillies to pull away.
New York lefty Sean Manaea will be making just his second start after beginning the season as a reliever, and the Philadelphia bullpen paces the majors in xFIP this season and across the past 30 days to close out the game behind Nola.
Play to -125.
COVERS INTEL: The Mets rank 29th in wOBA and 27th in ISO against righties, and are tied for 28th in overall wOBAcon this season.
Mets vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-103)
In addition to the highlighted offensive struggles of the Mets, New York has also played to the Under in 25 of its last 40 away games (+9.50 Units / 22% ROI).
Similarly, the Phillies have struggled against lefties with a 25th-ranked wOBA and gone Under the number in 24 of their last 35 games (+12.00 Units / 31% ROI).
The New York bullpen has also been solid and checks in just below Philly with ranks of seventh in xFIP for the year and eighth across the past 30 days.
Play to -115.
- ML/RL bets: 28-14, +15.77 units
- Over/Under bets: 14-13, -0.03 units
Mets vs Phillies weather
There's an elevated total on the board based on the forecast, which calls for a high of 87F and winds blowing out to right center at 15 mph.
Mets vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Mets -104 | Phillies -127
- Run line: Mets -1.5 (+150) | Phillies +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-122)
Mets vs Phillies trend
The Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 45 games (+11.40 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies.
How to watch Mets vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Thursday, June 18, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, NBCSP |
| Mets starting pitcher | Sean Manaea (1-2, 4.78 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Aaron Nola (3-4, 5.86 ERA) |
Mets vs Phillies latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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