The Philadelphia Phillies are -200 favorites to take the rubber match on Sunday Night Baseball, and for good reason.
My Mets vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks see value in backing the Phillies to win convincingly on home soil.
For more analysis, check out our Mets vs. Phillies prop picks.
Who will win Mets vs Phillies today: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+100)
The New York Mets own a .293 OBP against righties in June and have struck out at the league’s fourth-highest rate.
It’s not going to get any easier against Philadelphia Phillies starter Zack Wheeler.
He has started five games against teams ranking in the bottom half of the league in OBP vs. righties. He posted a 1.72 ERA in those starts while averaging 6 2/3 innings of work.
Wheeler ranks in the 96th percentile in Pitcher Run Value and should have little trouble with this lineup.
Back Philadelphia on the RL to -115.
COVERS INTEL: Mets starter David Peterson ranks in the sixth percentile in Pitcher Run Value, indicating a massive pitching advantage for the Phillies.
Mets vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 8.0 (-105)
The Mets rank 29th in OBP and tied for 23rd in runs per game. They are not a good offensive team at the best of times, and it’ll be tough sledding against an in-form Wheeler.
The Phillies are more likely to do damage against David Peterson, but a ceiling game at the plate is still unlikely.
Philadelphia has struggled with lefties for much of the year, hitting just .223 and ranking 23rd in wOBA.
The Mets also have a very rested bullpen behind Peterson, so they’ll be well-equipped to put out fires as they arise.
Play to -115.
- ML/RL bets: 37-28, +1.15 units
- Over/Under bets: 35-27-3, +4.69 units
Mets vs Phillies weather
Sunny skies and 80-degree weather will help give balls a little more pop tonight. Winds are expected to blow side-to-side.
Mets vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Mets +165 | Phillies -200
- Run line: Mets +1.5 (-120) | Phillies -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Mets vs Phillies trend
Philadelphia has hit the game total Under in 23 of the last 35 games (+11 units, 29% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies.
How to watch Mets vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Sunday, June 21, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC, Peacock |
| Mets starting pitcher | David Peterson (3-5, 5.91 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Zack Wheeler (6-1, 2.01 ERA) |
Mets vs Phillies latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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