Let's keep the good vibes rolling with three of my favorite home run props and predictions for today's MLB slate.
Find out why I am backing Junior Caminero, Heriberto Hernandez, and Teoscar Hernandez.
These are my favorite MLB picks for Tuesday, Sept. 8.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
MLB home run props for today
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Player to hit a HR | Chance |
|---|---|
 Junior Caminero |
26% |
 Heriberto Hernandez |
23% |
 Teoscar Hernandez |
26% |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | 94.40x |
Home run prediction: Junior Caminero (26%)
Despite the small sample size, Atlanta Braves right hander AJ Smith-Shawver has been horrendous against right-handed hitters this season, allowing a .346 BA, .538 SLG, and 1.023 OPS across 33 batters.
Tampa Bay Rays slugger Junior Caminero has the highest matchup rating in this game over at Batters-Box, where he leaves the yard 32.26% of the time with an elite road rating. Caminero also covers nearly 97% of Smith-Shawver’s pitch mix.
Over his last 10 games, Caminero owns a .525 SLG and .250 ISO with a 51.6% hard-hit rate and nearly 13% barrel rate.
Caminero should be just fine against a guy still trying to find his footing against righties.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RAYS, BravesVsn
Home run prediction: Heriberto Hernandez (23%)
Big day to back a Hernandez, as we’re backing Miami Marlins slugger Heriberto Hernandez this evening against New York Mets southpaw Sean Manaea.
The young Marlins slugger has been all over left-handed pitching this season, owning a .543 SLG and .879 OPS. On top of that, Hernandez has been mashing over his last 10 games, posting a .289 ISO and 17.4% ground-ball rate while barreling the ball more than 17% of the time.
Manaea has been progressively getting worse as the games go by. Over his last five outings, he owns a 5.87 ERA while allowing a 15.46% barrel rate. Over his last three starts, he has a 7.79 ERA and a near 18% barrel rate.
The last 60 right-handed hitters the veteran has faced have generated a barrel rate of nearly 20%, along with a .363 xBA and .744 xSLG.
If Manaea is going to continue getting worse as the season progresses, let’s fade the daylights out of him.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MIAM, SNY
Home run prediction: Teoscar Hernandez (26%)
“But bu- he homered last night.”
Cool.
Anywho, tonight we are backing Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Teoscar Hernandez, who has not only been teeing off against southpaws, but has also been on fire over his last 10 games. During that stretch, he owns a .649 SLG, .719 xSLG, and .244 ISO, while generating a 64%+ hard-hit rate and 18% barrel rate.
This evening, Hernandez draws Cincinnati Reds left-hander Nick Lodolo, who's been getting tormented by right-handed hitters lately. The last 60 he's faced sport a .350 xBA, .640 xSLG, and .400 xwOBA, while Lodolo is allowing a 53.5% hard-hit rate, 16.3% barrel rate, and 27.9% ground-ball rate.
Some may shy away from this prop because Hernandez left the yard last night. Has nobody ever gone back-to-back days with a home run?
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNLA, CINR
- HR picks: 122-417, +26.2 units
Best home run combo for September 8
| Junior Caminero |
Trade Now 94.40x |
| Heriberto Hernandez |
|
| Teoscar Hernandez |
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
