The Milwaukee Brewers enter Game 2 of the World Series with a 1-0 series lead. They carry a 54% win probability for tonight, but my Rays vs. Brewers predictions believe Tampa Bay will answer back behind Drew Rasmussen.
Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, Oct. 24.
TOP PICK
Rays vs Brewers prediction: Rays moneyline
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Play the Tampa Bay Rays to 48%.
Tampa Bay’s rotation decision looked strange on Friday. In practice, Kevin Cash put Nick Martinez against the Milwaukee Brewers' toughest starter and preserved Drew Rasmussen for Logan Henderson.
That leaves the Rays with the better starter at an underdog price. Rasmussen’s 2.67 ERA is backed by a 3.06 xERA and a rare combo: a strong strikeout rate at 26% with a low 6% barrel rate. He has sharpened further in October, allowing three runs across 21 innings with 23 strikeouts and three walks.
Henderson is legitimate, but his first two postseason starts ended after five and four innings, with only six combined strikeouts.
Milwaukee’s home field (and if last night is any indication, it's a real advantage paired with the Rays' poor home/away splits) and bullpen depth keep this from being an aggressive play beyond 48%, but Tampa Bay has a strong pitching edge. They shouldn't be an underdog, and I’ll back them to capitalize.
COVERS INTEL: Rasmussen generated 41 runs of pitching value this season, compared with 16 for Henderson. That tells you how different the stuff is.Who will win Rays vs Brewers?
Rays: The Rays will win World Series Game 2. Their starting-pitching advantage gives them the cleanest path to evening the series before it shifts to Tampa Bay.
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Rays vs Brewers combo
Rasmussen and Henderson posted walk rates of 4.8% and 5%, reducing the chance that either side manufactures an early inning without making solid contact. Henderson also filled the zone at a 53.6% clip and threw first-pitch strikes to nearly 68% of hitters.
The bullpen configuration helps Tampa Bay later. Milwaukee used Aaron Ashby for five outs before turning to Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill in Game 1, while Bryan Baker, Cam Booser, and Tyler Wells remained unused for the Rays.
That supports a clean opening inning, a suppressed full-game score, and Tampa Bay winning another tight one.
Rays vs Brewers combo
- Rays moneyline
- Under 6.5
- NRFI
Rays vs Brewers player prop: Drew Rasmussen Over 5.5 strikeouts
Rasmussen has cleared this number in all three postseason starts, recording 23 strikeouts across 21 innings. Milwaukee’s projected lineup also contains six left-handed hitters, which plays into one of Rasmussen’s strongest splits.
He struck out 111 of the 392 left-handed batters he faced this season, a strong 28.3% rate. His expanded changeup usage gives him a direct weapon against that lineup construction. The pitch generated a 35.3% whiff rate and a 36.7% strikeout rate.
With six days of rest and an established seven-inning postseason leash, Rasmussen should have enough volume to reach six strikeouts.
- ML/RL Picks: 59-51, +12.69 units
- Over/Under Picks: 62-43, +20.30 units
Rays vs Brewers weather
The roof at American Family Field is expected to be closed, so weather will not materially affect the total or home-run market.
Rays vs Brewers odds
- Moneyline: Rays 46% | Brewers 54%
- Run line: Rays +1.5 | Brewers -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Rays vs Brewers trend
The Rays have hit the moneyline in 27 of their last 40 games (+12.05 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Brewers.
How to watch Rays vs Brewers and game info
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Rays starting pitcher | Drew Rasmussen (2-0, 1.29 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Logan Henderson (0-0, 3.00 ERA) |
Rays vs Brewers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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